6 matches are on Tuesday's card at Brussels, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Toby Samuel against Zizou Bergs in the round of 32. Our calls: Bergs over Samuel, Fearnley over Gaston, Navone over Cerundolo, Struff over Giron, Zandschulp over Chidekh, Collignon over Basavareddy.
The boldest call on the card: Collignon over Basavareddy — the market disagrees with us there.
Pick: Zandschulp
Win probability: 72% Zandschulp · Market: -130 · We call it in 2 sets (59%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (45%)
Tuesday's Brussels round of 32 pits Botic Van De Zandschulp against Clement Chidekh on hard. Botic Van De Zandschulp has won 6 of the last 10. Clement Chidekh comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. If Zandschulp plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
Pick: CollignonUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Basavareddy the favorite; our numbers say Collignon.
Win probability: 66% Collignon · Market: +126 · We call it in 3 sets (50%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (34%)
Nishesh Basavareddy and Raphael Collignon meet in the round of 32 at Brussels on Tuesday. Raphael Collignon is searching for form, having lost 6 in a row (4 of the last 10). Nishesh Basavareddy comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
Raphael Collignon simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Collignon should have enough here, though Basavareddy has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Bergs
Win probability: 61% Bergs · Market: -202 · We call it in 2 sets (61%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (39%)
Tuesday's Brussels round of 32 pits Toby Samuel against Zizou Bergs on hard. Zizou Bergs has won 6 of the last 10. Toby Samuel limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 6 wins in 10.
Bergs's 72.5% behind the first serve (against 68% for Samuel) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. The edge belongs to Bergs — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Struff
Win probability: 57% Struff · Market: -142 · We call it in 2 sets (58%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (34%)
Jan Lennard Struff and Marcos Giron meet in the round of 32 at Brussels on Tuesday. Jan Lennard Struff comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. Marcos Giron is searching for form, having lost 6 in a row (2 of the last 10).
The serve is where this match separates: Struff has been winning 76.6% of first-serve points to Giron's 70.5%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Struff is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Fearnley
Win probability: 55% Fearnley · Market: -142 · We call it in 3 sets (44%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (31%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Hugo Gaston goes up against Jacob Fearnley in the Brussels round of 32. Jacob Fearnley is rolling — 5 straight wins, 7 of 10 in recent play. Hugo Gaston is 6-4 across recent matches.
Fearnley's 71.8% behind the first serve (against 65.9% for Gaston) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Little separates them; Fearnley gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Navone
Win probability: 52% Navone · Market: -151 · We call it in 3 sets (47%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (28%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Juan Manuel Cerundolo goes up against Mariano Navone in the Brussels round of 32. Mariano Navone has dropped 3 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten. Juan Manuel Cerundolo is 4-6 across recent matches.
Mariano Navone simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Navone fractionally more likely to land the big points.
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