6 matches are on Tuesday's card at Guangzhou, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Keegan Smith against Max Purcell in the round of 32. Our calls: Purcell over Smith, Cui over Hsu, Noguchi over Samrej, Wu over Matsuoka, Schoolkate over Fomin, Zhang over Uchida.
Pick: Zhang
Win probability: 73% Zhang · Market: -550 · We call it in 2 sets (64%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (49%)
Kaichi Uchida and Zhizhen Zhang meet in the round of 32 at Guangzhou on Tuesday. Zhizhen Zhang is searching for form, having lost 5 in a row (1 of the last 10). Kaichi Uchida has dropped 10 straight and sits at 0-10 over the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Uchida needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
Pick: Noguchi
Win probability: 60% Noguchi · Market: -191 · We call it in 3 sets (46%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (33%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Kasidit Samrej goes up against Rio Noguchi in the Guangzhou round of 32. Rio Noguchi has won 6 of the last 10. Kasidit Samrej comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
Rio Noguchi is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Noguchi around 60%. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Noguchi.
Pick: Cui
Win probability: 50% Cui · Market: -127 · We call it in 3 sets (55%) · single likeliest score 2-1 (28%)
Tuesday's Guangzhou round of 32 pits Jie Cui against Yu Hsiou Hsu on hard. Jie Cui has won 4 of the last 10. Yu Hsiou Hsu has dropped 6 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Cui fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Purcell
Win probability: 57% Purcell · Market: -185 · We call it in 2 sets (59%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (34%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Keegan Smith goes up against Max Purcell in the Guangzhou round of 32. Max Purcell is 5-5 across recent matches. Keegan Smith is 6-4 across recent matches.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Purcell is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Schoolkate
Win probability: 76% Schoolkate · Market: -399 · We call it in 3 sets (44%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (44%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Sergey Fomin goes up against Tristan Schoolkate in the Guangzhou round of 32. Tristan Schoolkate has dropped 2 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten. Sergey Fomin has dropped 4 straight and sits at 2-8 over the last ten.
The serve is where this match separates: Schoolkate has been winning 75.2% of first-serve points to Fomin's 67.5%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. If Schoolkate plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
Pick: Wu
Win probability: 74% Wu · Market: -368 · We call it in 2 sets (64%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (49%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Hayato Matsuoka goes up against Yibing Wu in the Guangzhou round of 32. Yibing Wu comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. Hayato Matsuoka limps in on a 4-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10.
Yibing Wu simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. If Wu plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
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