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Lisbon Predictions & Picks — October 20, 2026

By The Maiden Desk · October 20, 2026

Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.

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6 matches are on Tuesday's card at Lisbon, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Alexander Ritschard against Carlos Taberner in the round of 32. Our calls: Ritschard over Taberner, Pellegrino over Tiffon, Izquierdo over Hassan, Hemery over Brancaccio, Trungelliti over Pereira, Passaro over Elias.

Calvin Hemery vs Raul Brancaccio

✗ Pick wrongA miss: Calvin Hemery at 59% lost to Raul Brancaccio (6-1 6-4).

Pick: Hemery

Win probability: 59% Hemery · Market: -119 · We call it in 3 sets (51%) · single likeliest score 2-1 (30%)

A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Calvin Hemery goes up against Raul Brancaccio in the Lisbon round of 32. Calvin Hemery is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (5 of the last 10). Raul Brancaccio limps in on a 4-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10.

Hemery's 72.8% behind the first serve (against 66.3% for Brancaccio) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Hemery fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Alexander Ritschard vs Carlos Taberner

✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Alexander Ritschard at 56% before the match, and Alexander Ritschard won 6-1 7-5.

Pick: Ritschard

Win probability: 56% Ritschard · Market: -155 · We call it in 3 sets (50%) · single likeliest score 2-1 (28%)

Tuesday's Lisbon round of 32 pits Alexander Ritschard against Carlos Taberner on clay. Alexander Ritschard has won 6 of the last 10. Carlos Taberner has dropped 3 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten.

The serve is where this match separates: Ritschard has been winning 69% of first-serve points to Taberner's 65%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. Little separates them; Ritschard gets the nod on the finest of margins.

Andrea Pellegrino vs Pol Martin Tiffon

Not gradedThis match ended in a retirement, advancing Andrea Pellegrino. It is excluded from our graded record — no pick is counted as right or wrong.

Pick: Pellegrino

Win probability: 60% Pellegrino · Market: -141 · We call it in 3 sets (52%) · single likeliest score 2-1 (30%)

Andrea Pellegrino and Pol Martin Tiffon meet in the round of 32 at Lisbon on Tuesday. Andrea Pellegrino limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10. Pol Martin Tiffon has won 4 of the last 10.

Andrea Pellegrino simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Pellegrino gets the nod on the finest of margins.

Francesco Passaro vs Gastao Elias

✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 76% on Francesco Passaro, who won 6-2 6-2.

Pick: Passaro

Win probability: 76% Passaro · Market: -607 · We call it in 2 sets (58%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (45%)

Francesco Passaro and Gastao Elias meet in the round of 32 at Lisbon on Tuesday. Francesco Passaro has won 5 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall. Gastao Elias has dropped 6 straight and sits at 2-8 over the last ten.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. Anything other than a Passaro win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.

Marco Trungelliti vs T. Pereira

✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 78% on Marco Trungelliti, who won 7-6 4-6 6-1.

Pick: Trungelliti

Win probability: 78% Trungelliti · Market: -363 · We call it in 3 sets (45%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (45%)

A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Marco Trungelliti goes up against T. Pereira in the Lisbon round of 32. Marco Trungelliti has won 5 of the last 10. T. Pereira is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (4 of the last 10).

Marco Trungelliti is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Trungelliti around 78%. If Trungelliti plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.

Benjamin Hassan vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo

✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo at 61%, but Benjamin Hassan won 6-3 1-6 6-3.

Pick: Izquierdo

Win probability: 61% Izquierdo · Market: -206 · We call it in 3 sets (49%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (32%)

A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Benjamin Hassan goes up against Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo in the Lisbon round of 32. Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo is 7-3 across recent matches. Benjamin Hassan comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.

On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. The edge belongs to Izquierdo — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

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Updated Oct 19, 2026, 10:00 PM UTC. Picks are frozen before first serve and graded on the track record page — this page is never edited after the fact.