7 matches are on Tuesday's card at Ningbo, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Belinda Bencic against Jelena Ostapenko in the round of 32. Our calls: Bencic over Ostapenko, Shnaider over Putintseva, Kudermetova over Bucsa, Paolini over Kalinina, Bejlek over Parks, Chwalinska over Kawa, and 1 more.
Pick: Chwalinska
Win probability: 81% Chwalinska · Market: -278 · We call it in 2 sets (64%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (53%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Katarzyna Kawa goes up against Maja Chwalinska in the Ningbo round of 32. Maja Chwalinska brings a 6-match winning streak into this one, 8-2 across the last ten. Katarzyna Kawa limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10.
Maja Chwalinska is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Chwalinska around 81%. Kawa needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
Pick: Shnaider
Win probability: 67% Shnaider · Market: -261 · We call it in 2 sets (65%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (46%)
Tuesday's Ningbo round of 32 pits Diana Shnaider against Yulia Putintseva on hard. Diana Shnaider is 6-4 across recent matches. Yulia Putintseva has won 4 of the last 10.
Diana Shnaider is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Shnaider around 67%. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Shnaider.
Pick: Bencic
Win probability: 60% Bencic · Market: -132 · We call it in 2 sets (63%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (39%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Belinda Bencic goes up against Jelena Ostapenko in the Ningbo round of 32. Belinda Bencic limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 6 wins in 10. Jelena Ostapenko has won 6 of the last 10.
Belinda Bencic simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Bencic gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Paolini
Win probability: 63% Paolini · Market: -186 · We call it in 2 sets (67%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (44%)
Tuesday's Ningbo round of 32 pits Anhelina Kalinina against Jasmine Paolini on hard. Jasmine Paolini comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Anhelina Kalinina has dropped 3 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten.
Jasmine Paolini is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Paolini around 63%. Paolini should have enough here, though Kalinina has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Kudermetova
Win probability: 50% Kudermetova · Market: +107 · We call it in 2 sets (61%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (31%)
Tuesday's Ningbo round of 32 pits Cristina Bucsa against Polina Kudermetova on hard. Polina Kudermetova comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. Cristina Bucsa has dropped 5 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten.
This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.
The serve is where this match separates: Kudermetova has been winning 65.2% of first-serve points to Bucsa's 58.6%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Kudermetova is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Snigur
Win probability: 74% Snigur · Market: -250 · We call it in 2 sets (66%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (51%)
Daria Snigur and Katarzyna Kawa meet in the round of 32 at Ningbo on Tuesday. Daria Snigur is 5-5 across recent matches. Katarzyna Kawa is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (3 of the last 10).
Snigur's 60.8% behind the first serve (against 57.5% for Kawa) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. If Snigur plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
Pick: Bejlek
Win probability: 69% Bejlek · Market: -361 · We call it in 2 sets (60%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (44%)
Tuesday's Ningbo round of 32 pits Alycia Parks against Sara Bejlek on hard. Sara Bejlek has dropped 2 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten. Alycia Parks limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Bejlek — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Sign up for the daily desk email and our nine-chapter beginner's guide to trading sports prediction markets comes free as a PDF. One email a day with the day's free picks in full, unsubscribe anytime.