5 matches are on Wednesday's card at Ningbo, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Ekaterina Alexandrova against Marta Kostyuk in the round of 16. Our calls: Kostyuk over Alexandrova, Swiatek over Bouzkova, Cirstea over Bejlek, Fernandez over Sasnovich, Bouzkova over Zakharova.
Pick: Swiatek
Win probability: 73% Swiatek · Market: -276 · We call it in 2 sets (68%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (53%)
Iga Swiatek and Marie Bouzkova meet in the round of 16 at Ningbo on Wednesday. Iga Swiatek is 7-3 across recent matches. Marie Bouzkova is 6-4 across recent matches.
Iga Swiatek is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Swiatek around 73%. Bouzkova needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
Pick: Fernandez
Win probability: 62% Fernandez · Market: -192 · We call it in 2 sets (64%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (42%)
Wednesday's Ningbo round of 16 pits Aliaksandra Sasnovich against Leylah Fernandez on hard. Leylah Fernandez is 7-3 across recent matches. Aliaksandra Sasnovich is 5-5 across recent matches.
Hold strength tells the story — 64.8% versus 60.5% on first-serve points in Fernandez's favor. The edge belongs to Fernandez — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Bouzkova
Win probability: 69% Bouzkova · Market: -344 · We call it in 2 sets (67%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (48%)
Wednesday's Ningbo round of 16 pits Anastasia Zakharova against Marie Bouzkova on hard. Marie Bouzkova is 6-4 across recent matches. Anastasia Zakharova comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.
Marie Bouzkova simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Bouzkova should have enough here, though Zakharova has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Cirstea
Win probability: 62% Cirstea · Market: -185 · We call it in 2 sets (63%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (40%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Sara Bejlek goes up against Sorana Cirstea in the Ningbo round of 16. Sorana Cirstea is 5-5 across recent matches. Sara Bejlek has dropped 2 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten.
Cirstea's 62.9% behind the first serve (against 58.3% for Bejlek) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. The edge belongs to Cirstea — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Kostyuk
Win probability: 60% Kostyuk · Market: -137 · We call it in 2 sets (65%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (41%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Ekaterina Alexandrova goes up against Marta Kostyuk in the Ningbo round of 16. Marta Kostyuk has dropped 3 straight and sits at 6-4 over the last ten. Ekaterina Alexandrova is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (5 of the last 10).
Marta Kostyuk simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Kostyuk — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
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