5 matches are on Thursday's card at Lyon (France), and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Luca Van Assche against Valentin Vacherot in the round of 16. Our calls: Vacherot over Assche, Altmaier over Gojo, Cobolli over Wawrinka, Nakashima over Jacquet, Fritz over Herbert.
Pick: Fritz
Win probability: 75% Fritz · Market: -421 · We call it in 2 sets (66%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (52%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Pierre Hugues Herbert goes up against Taylor Fritz in the Lyon (France) round of 16. Taylor Fritz is 5-5 across recent matches. Pierre Hugues Herbert is 2-8 across recent matches.
Taylor Fritz simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. Herbert comes in off a compressed schedule. Herbert needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
Pick: Nakashima
Win probability: 70% Nakashima · Market: -174 · We call it in 2 sets (59%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (43%)
Thursday's Lyon (France) round of 16 pits Brandon Nakashima against Kyrian Jacquet on clay. Brandon Nakashima is 6-4 across recent matches. Kyrian Jacquet is 5-5 across recent matches.
The serve is where this match separates: Nakashima has been winning 74.5% of first-serve points to Jacquet's 69.9%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. Nakashima should have enough here, though Jacquet has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Altmaier
Win probability: 56% Altmaier · Market: +109 · We call it in 3 sets (43%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (32%)
Borna Gojo and Daniel Altmaier meet in the round of 16 at Lyon (France) on Thursday. Daniel Altmaier comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. Borna Gojo comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Altmaier gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Vacherot
Win probability: 54% Vacherot · Market: -130 · We call it in 3 sets (47%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (28%)
Thursday's Lyon (France) round of 16 pits Luca Van Assche against Valentin Vacherot on clay. Valentin Vacherot has won 6 of the last 10. Luca Van Assche is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (4 of the last 10).
Hold strength tells the story — 72.5% versus 66.4% on first-serve points in Vacherot's favor. Little separates them; Vacherot gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Cobolli
Win probability: 75% Cobolli · Market: -238 · We call it in 2 sets (62%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (49%)
Thursday's Lyon (France) round of 16 pits Flavio Cobolli against Stan Wawrinka on clay. Flavio Cobolli limps in on a 4-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10. Stan Wawrinka limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 2 wins in 10.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. Anything other than a Cobolli win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
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