4 matches are on Wednesday's card at Tokyo, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Alexandra Eala against Talia Gibson in the round of 16. Our calls: Eala over Gibson, Shnaider over Sasnovich, Alexandrova over Rakhimova, Joint over Bucsa.
Pick: Eala
Win probability: 63% Eala · Market: -235 · We call it in 2 sets (62%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (40%)
Wednesday's Tokyo round of 16 pits Alexandra Eala against Talia Gibson on hard. Alexandra Eala is 4-6 across recent matches. Talia Gibson is 6-4 across recent matches.
Alexandra Eala simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Eala.
Pick: Shnaider
Win probability: 73% Shnaider · Market: -276 · We call it in 2 sets (67%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (51%)
Wednesday's Tokyo round of 16 pits Aliaksandra Sasnovich against Diana Shnaider on hard. Diana Shnaider is 7-3 across recent matches. Aliaksandra Sasnovich is 5-5 across recent matches.
Diana Shnaider simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Sasnovich comes in off a compressed schedule. Sasnovich needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
Pick: Alexandrova
Win probability: 67% Alexandrova · Market: -255 · We call it in 2 sets (63%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (44%)
Wednesday's Tokyo round of 16 pits Ekaterina Alexandrova against Kamilla Rakhimova on hard. Ekaterina Alexandrova comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Kamilla Rakhimova has dropped 2 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten.
Hold strength tells the story — 67.1% versus 62.3% on first-serve points in Alexandrova's favor. Alexandrova comes in off a compressed schedule. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Alexandrova.
Pick: Joint
Win probability: 50% Joint · Market: -120 · We call it in 2 sets (60%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (30%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Cristina Bucsa goes up against Maya Joint in the Tokyo round of 16. Maya Joint limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10. Cristina Bucsa is searching for form, having lost 6 in a row (3 of the last 10).
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Bucsa comes in off a compressed schedule; Joint comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Joint is exactly that — a lean.
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