4 matches are on Thursday's card at Guangzhou, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Lilli Tagger against Magda Linette in the round of 16. Our calls: Tagger over Linette, Quevedo over Bondar, Teichmann over Sonmez, Siniakova over Liu.
Pick: Quevedo
Win probability: 51% Quevedo · Market: +104 · We call it in 2 sets (58%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (30%)
Thursday's Guangzhou round of 16 pits Anna Bondar against Kaitlin Quevedo on hard. Kaitlin Quevedo comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Anna Bondar comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
Kaitlin Quevedo is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Quevedo around 51%. Quevedo comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Quevedo gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Teichmann
Win probability: 54% Teichmann · Market: +199 · We call it in 2 sets (60%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (34%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Jil Teichmann goes up against Zeynep Sonmez in the Guangzhou round of 16. Jil Teichmann has won 8 of the last 10. Zeynep Sonmez comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Teichmann comes in off a compressed schedule; Sonmez comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Teichmann fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Tagger
Win probability: 57% Tagger · Market: -232 · We call it in 2 sets (64%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (37%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Lilli Tagger goes up against Magda Linette in the Guangzhou round of 16. Lilli Tagger is 4-6 across recent matches. Magda Linette comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.
The serve is where this match separates: Tagger has been winning 67.3% of first-serve points to Linette's 63.3%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Tagger fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Siniakova
Win probability: 64% Siniakova · Market: -159 · We call it in 2 sets (64%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (43%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Claire Liu goes up against Katerina Siniakova in the Guangzhou round of 16. Katerina Siniakova brings a 4-match winning streak into this one, 6-4 across the last ten. Claire Liu is 7-3 across recent matches.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Siniakova comes in off a compressed schedule. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Siniakova.
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