3 matches are on Thursday's card at Tokyo, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Elise Mertens against Leylah Fernandez in the round of 16. Our calls: Mertens over Fernandez, Rybakina over Putintseva, Birrell over Parks.
Pick: Rybakina
Win probability: 87% Rybakina · Market: -494 · We call it in 2 sets (69%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (64%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Elena Rybakina goes up against Yulia Putintseva in the Tokyo round of 16. Elena Rybakina has won 3 in a row and 9 of the last 10 overall. Yulia Putintseva is 4-6 across recent matches.
Rybakina's 70% behind the first serve (against 60% for Putintseva) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Anything other than a Rybakina win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
Pick: Birrell
Win probability: 54% Birrell · Market: -151 · We call it in 2 sets (61%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (33%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Alycia Parks goes up against Kimberly Birrell in the Tokyo round of 16. Kimberly Birrell limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 7 wins in 10. Alycia Parks is 4-6 across recent matches.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Little separates them; Birrell gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Mertens
Win probability: 50% Mertens · Market: -110 · We call it in 2 sets (62%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (32%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Elise Mertens goes up against Leylah Fernandez in the Tokyo round of 16. Elise Mertens comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Leylah Fernandez has won 7 of the last 10.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Mertens fractionally more likely to land the big points.
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