3 matches are on Friday's card at Tokyo, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Elena Rybakina against Leylah Fernandez in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Rybakina over Fernandez, Shnaider over Eala, Rakhimova over Joint.
Pick: Shnaider
Win probability: 58% Shnaider · Market: -112 · We call it in 2 sets (61%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (36%)
Alexandra Eala and Diana Shnaider meet in the quarterfinal at Tokyo on Friday. Diana Shnaider has won 7 of the last 10. Alexandra Eala comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
Diana Shnaider simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Shnaider fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Rakhimova
Win probability: 52% Rakhimova · Market: +122 · We call it in 2 sets (59%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (31%)
Kamilla Rakhimova and Maya Joint meet in the quarterfinal at Tokyo on Friday. Kamilla Rakhimova is 6-4 across recent matches. Maya Joint is 6-4 across recent matches.
Rakhimova's 62.4% behind the first serve (against 59.3% for Joint) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Rakhimova fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Rybakina
Win probability: 80% Rybakina · Market: -293 · We call it in 2 sets (66%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (57%)
Friday's Tokyo quarterfinal pits Elena Rybakina against Leylah Fernandez on hard. Elena Rybakina is rolling — 3 straight wins, 9 of 10 in recent play. Leylah Fernandez is 7-3 across recent matches.
The serve is where this match separates: Rybakina has been winning 70% of first-serve points to Fernandez's 64.7%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Fernandez needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
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