Paris · R32 · Clay · best of 3 · Nov 4, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Alexander Zverev vs Lorenzo Musetti — preview and prediction
By The Maiden Desk · November 4, 2026
Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.
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Alexander Zverev and Lorenzo Musetti meet in the round of 32 at Paris on Wednesday. Alexander Zverev has won 7 of the last 10. Lorenzo Musetti is 6-4 across recent matches.
Hold strength tells the story — 73.7% versus 69.3% on first-serve points in Zverev's favor. Zverev should have enough here, though Musetti has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
The numbers behind the pick
Our number vs the market
Maiden-185(64.9% Zverev)
Market-213(68.0% Zverev)
Sources: Market price (via our tennis data provider). These are the odds converted to a %, with no juice taken out.
Surface ratings
Clay rating
Alexander Zverev
2082
Lorenzo Musetti
2021
Overall rating
Alexander Zverev
2151
Lorenzo Musetti
1977
Serve
Serve (last 52 weeks)
Alexander Zverev
Lorenzo Musetti
1st serve in
68.3%
63.8%
1st serve points won
73.7%
69.3%
2nd serve points won
47.2%
52%
Form
Alexander Zverev
7–3
Lorenzo Musetti
6–4
The rest of the numbers
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
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Who is predicted to win Alexander Zverev vs Lorenzo Musetti?
Maiden gives Alexander Zverev a 65% chance to beat Lorenzo Musetti in the Paris round of 32 on November 4, 2026.
How confident is the Alexander Zverev pick?
65% is a “Confident” tier pick. When we make a pick around 65%, picks in that range have won 64% of the time (362 so far). See the track record page for the full table.