Paris · R32 · Clay · best of 3 · Nov 4, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Arthur Fils vs Tomas Machac — preview and prediction
By The Maiden Desk · November 4, 2026
Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.
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Arthur Fils and Tomas Machac meet in the round of 32 at Paris on Wednesday. Arthur Fils is 6-4 across recent matches. Tomas Machac comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
The serve is where this match separates: Fils has been winning 74% of first-serve points to Machac's 68.6%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Fils.
The numbers behind the pick
Our number vs the market
Maiden-254(71.7% Fils)
Market-182(64.5% Fils)
Sources: Market price (via our tennis data provider). These are the odds converted to a %, with no juice taken out.
Surface ratings
Clay rating
Arthur Fils
2008
Tomas Machac
1832
Overall rating
Arthur Fils
2075
Tomas Machac
1825
Serve
Serve (last 52 weeks)
Arthur Fils
Tomas Machac
1st serve in
61.4%
63.1%
1st serve points won
74%
68.6%
2nd serve points won
50.2%
53.1%
Form
Arthur Fils
6–4
Tomas Machac
5–5
The rest of the numbers
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
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Who is predicted to win Arthur Fils vs Tomas Machac?
Maiden gives Arthur Fils a 72% chance to beat Tomas Machac in the Paris round of 32 on November 4, 2026.
How confident is the Arthur Fils pick?
72% is a “Confident” tier pick. When we make a pick around 72%, picks in that range have won 72% of the time (149 so far). See the track record page for the full table.