Paris · R32 · Clay · best of 3 · Nov 3, 2026, 7:30 PM UTC
Casper Ruud vs Rafael Jodar — preview and prediction
By The Maiden Desk · November 3, 2026
Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.
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A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Casper Ruud goes up against Rafael Jodar in the Paris round of 32. Rafael Jodar comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Casper Ruud is 7-3 across recent matches.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Little separates them; Jodar gets the nod on the finest of margins.
The numbers behind the pick
Our number vs the market
Maiden-121(54.8% Jodar)
Market-168(62.7% Jodar)
Sources: Market price (via our tennis data provider). These are the odds converted to a %, with no juice taken out.
Surface ratings
Clay rating
Casper Ruud
2021
Rafael Jodar
2029
Overall rating
Casper Ruud
1992
Rafael Jodar
2070
Serve
Serve (last 52 weeks)
Casper Ruud
Rafael Jodar
1st serve in
65%
62.3%
1st serve points won
70.3%
69.5%
2nd serve points won
54.4%
51.5%
Form
Casper Ruud
7–3
Rafael Jodar
7–3
The rest of the numbers
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
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Who is predicted to win Casper Ruud vs Rafael Jodar?
Maiden gives Rafael Jodar a 55% chance to beat Casper Ruud in the Paris round of 32 on November 3, 2026.
How confident is the Rafael Jodar pick?
55% is a “Lean” tier pick. When we make a pick around 55%, picks in that range have won 56% of the time (438 so far). See the track record page for the full table.