Paris · R32 · Clay · best of 3 · Nov 4, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Daniil Medvedev vs Ignacio Buse — preview and prediction
By The Maiden Desk · November 4, 2026
Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.
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Wednesday's Paris round of 32 pits Daniil Medvedev against Ignacio Buse on clay. Daniil Medvedev comes in at 8 wins from the last ten. Ignacio Buse is 5-5 across recent matches.
Hold strength tells the story — 72.8% versus 68.2% on first-serve points in Medvedev's favor. The edge belongs to Medvedev — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
The numbers behind the pick
Our number vs the market
Maiden-203(67.0% Medvedev)
Market-456(82.0% Medvedev)
Sources: Market price (via our tennis data provider). These are the odds converted to a %, with no juice taken out.
Surface ratings
Clay rating
Daniil Medvedev
1892
Ignacio Buse
1849
Overall rating
Daniil Medvedev
2055
Ignacio Buse
1837
Serve
Serve (last 52 weeks)
Daniil Medvedev
Ignacio Buse
1st serve in
62.2%
61.7%
1st serve points won
72.8%
68.2%
2nd serve points won
48.9%
48.9%
Form
Daniil Medvedev
8–2
Ignacio Buse
5–5
The rest of the numbers
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
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Who is predicted to win Daniil Medvedev vs Ignacio Buse?
Maiden gives Daniil Medvedev a 67% chance to beat Ignacio Buse in the Paris round of 32 on November 4, 2026.
How confident is the Daniil Medvedev pick?
67% is a “Confident” tier pick. When we make a pick around 67%, picks in that range have won 70% of the time (254 so far). See the track record page for the full table.