Monday's Paris round of 64 pits Hubert Hurkacz against Lorenzo Musetti on clay. Lorenzo Musetti has won 5 of the last 10. Hubert Hurkacz has won 7 of the last 10.

Lorenzo Musetti is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Musetti around 52%. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Musetti is exactly that — a lean.