Fresno State Bulldogs at San Diego State Aztecs — prediction and win probability
The numbers
| Projected total | 47.1 |
| Our picks at 60% to 65% confidence | 24-12 (67%) |
That is our real record at this confidence level. Every level, graded in public.
The projected total is our model’s number, not a market’s. We grade the win probability, and it opens to everyone the moment this game is played.
Market average
| Spread (Fresno State Bulldogs) | -7.5 |
| Total | 46 |
The market’s numbers, not ours: an average across the books our data provider covers, for context beside the projections above. We don’t guarantee its accuracy or timeliness, and nothing here is a price you can transact at.
Still to come today
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Prediction published Oct 11, 2026, 3:01 PM UTC
Tomorrow's board, before kickoff
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Frequently asked questions
- What is the projected total for Fresno State vs San Diego State?
- Our model projects 47.1 combined points. Maiden grades the win probability, not the total, and that win probability opens to everyone the moment this game is played.
- How often is Maiden right at this confidence level?
- Picks we published between 60% to 65% have won 24 of 36 college football games, 67%. That is the whole point of publishing a probability rather than a name: you can check for yourself whether a number in that range has actually meant what it said. The full table, every band and every sport, is on our track record page.
- Where does the Fresno State vs San Diego State win probability come from?
- We fit power ratings to eleven seasons of college football results, blend them with published efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home advantage, with San Diego State Aztecs hosting Fresno State Bulldogs. The win-probability model is checked against more than six thousand out-of-sample games. No sportsbook line goes into it, and none appears on this page.
- Is this betting advice?
- No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Maiden publishes predictions, not bets.