Kansas Jayhawks at Kansas State Wildcats — prediction and win probability

The numbers

That is our real record at this confidence level. Every level, graded in public.

The win probability is the graded call. The projected spread, score and total come from the same model, and they beat a naive baseline in every season we tested. A spread reads here as it does anywhere else: -11 means we project that side to win by eleven. These are our numbers, not a market’s — the market consensus is shown separately, and labelled, wherever we have it.

Still to come today

• Georgia State Panthers at James Madison DukesSat, Oct 17 · Our pick: on the game page
• Ball State Cardinals at Bowling Green FalconsSat, Oct 17 · Our pick: on the game page
• Florida Atlantic Owls at Army Black KnightsSat, Oct 17 · Army Black Knights, 74% to win
• Northwestern Wildcats at Michigan State SpartansSat, Oct 17 · Northwestern Wildcats, 62% to win
• Virginia Cavaliers at SMU MustangsSat, Oct 17 · SMU Mustangs, 66% to win
• Pittsburgh Panthers at Boston College EaglesSat, Oct 17 · Pittsburgh Panthers, 74% to win
• Florida Gators at Texas LonghornsSat, Oct 17 · Texas Longhorns, 77% to win
• Mississippi State Bulldogs at LSU TigersSat, Oct 17 · LSU Tigers, 76% to win
• Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Maryland TerrapinsSat, Oct 17 · Our pick: on the game page
• Massachusetts Minutemen at Buffalo BullsSat, Oct 17 · Our pick: on the game page
• Charlotte 49ers at Temple OwlsSat, Oct 17 · Our pick: on the game page
• Western Michigan Broncos at Central Michigan ChippewasSat, Oct 17 · Our pick: on the game page
• Akron Zips at Miami (OH) RedHawksSat, Oct 17 · Our pick: on the game page
• Toledo Rockets at Eastern Michigan EaglesSat, Oct 17 · Our pick: on the game page
• Northern Illinois Huskies at Wyoming CowboysSat, Oct 17 · Our pick: on the game page
• Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Virginia Tech HokiesSat, Oct 17 · Our pick: on the game page
• Arizona State Sun Devils at Texas Tech Red RaidersSat, Oct 17 · Our pick: on the game page
• Alabama Crimson Tide at Tennessee VolunteersSat, Oct 17 · Our pick: on the game page
• Missouri Tigers at Ole Miss RebelsSat, Oct 17 · Our pick: on the game page
• Auburn Tigers at Georgia BulldogsSat, Oct 17 · Our pick: on the game page
• Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Rice OwlsSat, Oct 17 · Our pick: on the game page
• Troy Trojans at Louisiana Ragin' CajunsSat, Oct 17 · Our pick: on the game page
• Washington State Cougars at Oregon State BeaversSat, Oct 17 · Our pick: on the game page
• Nevada Wolf Pack at North Dakota State BisonSat, Oct 17 · Our pick: on the game page
• Kent State Golden Flashes at South Florida BullsSat, Oct 17 · Our pick: on the game page
• Florida State Seminoles at Miami HurricanesSat, Oct 17 · Our pick: on the game page
• TCU Horned Frogs at Baylor BearsSat, Oct 17 · Our pick: on the game page
• Arkansas Razorbacks at Vanderbilt CommodoresSat, Oct 17 · Our pick: on the game page
• Wisconsin Badgers at UCLA BruinsSat, Oct 17 · Our pick: on the game page
• Louisville Cardinals at Syracuse OrangeSat, Oct 17 · Our pick: on the game page
• Oklahoma State Cowboys at Houston CougarsSat, Oct 17 · Our pick: on the game page
• Notre Dame Fighting Irish at BYU CougarsSat, Oct 17 · Notre Dame Fighting Irish, 71% to win
• Kentucky Wildcats at Oklahoma SoonersSat, Oct 17 · Our pick: on the game page
• Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at UL Monroe WarhawksSat, Oct 17 · Our pick: on the game page
• Navy Midshipmen at UTSA RoadrunnersSat, Oct 17 · Our pick: on the game page
• San José State Spartans at UTEP MinersSat, Oct 17 · Our pick: on the game page
• Ohio Bobcats at Sacramento State HornetsSat, Oct 17 · Our pick: on the game page
• Utah Utes at Colorado BuffaloesSat, Oct 17 · Our pick: on the game page
• New Mexico Lobos at Hawai'i Rainbow WarriorsSat, Oct 17 · Our pick: on the game page
• Fresno State Bulldogs at San Diego State AztecsSat, Oct 17 · Our pick: on the game page
• Wake Forest Demon Deacons at California Golden BearsSat, Oct 17 · Our pick: on the game page

Frequently asked questions

Who is predicted to win Kansas vs Kansas State?

Maiden gives Kansas State Wildcats a 61% chance to beat Kansas Jayhawks. That is our model's straight-up win probability, published before kickoff and graded in public afterwards, whichever way it goes.

What is the projected score for Kansas vs Kansas State?

Our model projects Kansas State Wildcats 30, Kansas Jayhawks 26. The projected score and spread are supporting context only: the win probability is the published call, and it is the only number we are graded on.

How often is Maiden right at this confidence level?

Picks we published between 60% to 65% have won 24 of 36 college football games, 67%. That is the whole point of publishing a probability rather than a name: you can check for yourself whether a number in that range has actually meant what it said. The full table, every band and every sport, is on our track record page.

How often is Maiden right at this confidence level?

Picks we published between 60% to 65% have won 24 of 36 college football games, 67%. That is the whole point of publishing a probability rather than a name: you can check for yourself whether a number in that range has actually meant what it said. The full table, every band and every sport, is on our track record page.

Where does the Kansas vs Kansas State win probability come from?

We fit power ratings to eleven seasons of college football results, blend them with published efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home advantage, with Kansas State Wildcats hosting Kansas Jayhawks. The win-probability model is checked against more than six thousand out-of-sample games. No sportsbook line goes into it, and none appears on this page.

Is this betting advice?

No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.