✗ Pick wrongA miss: Ben Shelton at 98% lost to Raphael Collignon (6-4 7-5 6-4).
Pick: Shelton
Win probability: 98% Shelton
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Ben Shelton goes up against Raphael Collignon in the French Open round of 64. Ben Shelton is 6-4 across recent matches. Raphael Collignon is 6-4 across recent matches.
Raphael Collignon has had the better of this rivalry, winning 1 of 1 against Ben Shelton. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Collignon — worth more than the overall number this week.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Anything other than a Shelton win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 96% on Jannik Sinner; Juan Manuel Cerundolo won 3-6 2-6 7-5 6-1 6-1.
Pick: Sinner
Win probability: 96% Sinner
Thursday's French Open round of 64 pits Jannik Sinner against Juan Manuel Cerundolo on clay. Jannik Sinner is 9-1 across recent matches. Juan Manuel Cerundolo is rolling — 3 straight wins, 4 of 10 in recent play.
The rivalry is dead level: 1-1 across 2 matches. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Cerundolo — worth more than the overall number this week.
Sinner's 72.3% behind the first serve (against 66.1% for Cerundolo) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Cerundolo needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
✗ Pick wrongA miss: Stefanos Tsitsipas at 96% lost to Matteo Arnaldi (7-6 5-7 6-3 6-2).
Pick: Tsitsipas
Win probability: 96% Tsitsipas
Thursday's French Open round of 64 pits Matteo Arnaldi against Stefanos Tsitsipas on clay. Stefanos Tsitsipas is 5-5 across recent matches. Matteo Arnaldi has won 6 in a row and 8 of the last 10 overall.
The rivalry is dead level: 1-1 across 2 matches. On clay they're dead even at 1-1 — worth more than the overall number this week.
Tsitsipas's 74.8% behind the first serve (against 69.7% for Arnaldi) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. If Tsitsipas plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
✗ Pick wrongA miss: Susan Bandecchi at 90% lost to Daria Kasatkina (7-5 7-6).
Pick: Bandecchi
Win probability: 90% Bandecchi
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Daria Kasatkina goes up against Susan Bandecchi in the French Open round of 64. Susan Bandecchi is 5-5 across recent matches. Daria Kasatkina is 5-5 across recent matches.
Daria Kasatkina has had the better of this rivalry, winning 1 of 1 against Susan Bandecchi. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Kasatkina — worth more than the overall number this week.
Hold strength tells the story — 62.9% versus 58.8% on first-serve points in Bandecchi's favor. Kasatkina needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Aryna Sabalenka at 90% before the match, and Aryna Sabalenka won 7-5 6-2.
Pick: Sabalenka
Win probability: 90% Sabalenka
Thursday's French Open round of 64 pits Aryna Sabalenka against Elsa Jacquemot on clay. Aryna Sabalenka has won 4 in a row and 8 of the last 10 overall. Elsa Jacquemot has won 3 of the last 10.
Aryna Sabalenka leads the head-to-head 1-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Sabalenka — worth more than the overall number this week.
Sabalenka's 67.4% behind the first serve (against 62.3% for Jacquemot) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Jacquemot needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Zachary Svajda was our 89% pick, and won 6-3 6-4 6-7 6-2.
Pick: Svajda
Win probability: 89% Svajda
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Adam Walton goes up against Zachary Svajda in the French Open round of 64. Zachary Svajda brings a 4-match winning streak into this one, 6-4 across the last ten. Adam Walton has won 5 of the last 10.
Zachary Svajda has had the better of this rivalry, winning 1 of 1 against Adam Walton. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Svajda — worth more than the overall number this week.
Zachary Svajda simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. Anything other than a Svajda win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Francisco Cerundolo was our 87% pick, and won 2-6 6-4 6-2 6-1.
Pick: Cerundolo
Win probability: 87% Cerundolo
Thursday's French Open round of 64 pits Francisco Cerundolo against Hugo Gaston on clay. Francisco Cerundolo is 6-4 across recent matches. Hugo Gaston has won 2 of the last 10.
Francisco Cerundolo leads the head-to-head 2-1, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On clay specifically it reads 2-1 Cerundolo — worth more than the overall number this week.
Francisco Cerundolo simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. Gaston needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Oleksandra Oliynykova was our 79% pick, and won 6-3 0-6 7-6.
Pick: Oliynykova
Win probability: 79% Oliynykova
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Kimberly Birrell goes up against Oleksandra Oliynykova in the French Open round of 64. Oleksandra Oliynykova is rolling — 3 straight wins, 6 of 10 in recent play. Kimberly Birrell comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
The ledger favors Oleksandra Oliynykova, 1-0 across their 1 meetings with Kimberly Birrell. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Oliynykova — worth more than the overall number this week.
Oleksandra Oliynykova simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. Birrell needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
✗ Pick wrongA miss: Vit Kopriva at 79% lost to Martin Landaluce (1-6 2-6 6-4 7-5 6-0).
Pick: Kopriva
Win probability: 79% Kopriva
Thursday's French Open round of 64 pits Martin Landaluce against Vit Kopriva on clay. Vit Kopriva is 6-4 across recent matches. Martin Landaluce has won 6 of the last 10.
The ledger favors Martin Landaluce, 1-0 across their 1 meetings with Vit Kopriva. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Landaluce — worth more than the overall number this week.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Landaluce needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Elise Mertens at 75%, but Maja Chwalinska won 6-4 6-0.
Pick: Mertens
Win probability: 75% Mertens
Elise Mertens and Maja Chwalinska meet in the round of 64 at French Open on Thursday. Elise Mertens is 6-4 across recent matches. Maja Chwalinska is rolling — 6 straight wins, 8 of 10 in recent play.
Maja Chwalinska has had the better of this rivalry, winning 1 of 1 against Elise Mertens. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Chwalinska — worth more than the overall number this week.
The serve is where this match separates: Mertens has been winning 63.4% of first-serve points to Chwalinska's 57.3%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. Chwalinska needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Katerina Siniakova at 73%, but Victoria Mboko won 5-7 6-4 6-2.
Pick: Siniakova
Win probability: 73% Siniakova
Katerina Siniakova and Victoria Mboko meet in the round of 64 at French Open on Thursday. Katerina Siniakova has won 5 of the last 10. Victoria Mboko comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.
Victoria Mboko leads the head-to-head 1-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Mboko — worth more than the overall number this week.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Mboko needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 71% on Facundo Diaz Acosta; Learner Tien won 7-5 4-6 3-6 7-6 6-3.
Pick: Acosta
Win probability: 71% Acosta
Thursday's French Open round of 64 pits Facundo Diaz Acosta against Learner Tien on clay. Facundo Diaz Acosta comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. Learner Tien has won 8 of the last 10.
Learner Tien leads the head-to-head 1-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Tien — worth more than the overall number this week.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Acosta.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Brandon Nakashima was our 71% pick, and won 6-7 6-4 5-7 6-1 6-3.
Pick: Nakashima
Win probability: 71% Nakashima
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Brandon Nakashima goes up against Luca Van Assche in the French Open round of 64. Brandon Nakashima comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Luca Van Assche is 6-4 across recent matches.
The ledger favors Brandon Nakashima, 1-0 across their 1 meetings with Luca Van Assche. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Nakashima — worth more than the overall number this week.
Nakashima's 74% behind the first serve (against 68.6% for Assche) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Nakashima.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Madison Keys was our 70% pick, and won 6-4 6-4.
Pick: Keys
Win probability: 70% Keys
Thursday's French Open round of 64 pits Antonia Ruzic against Madison Keys on clay. Madison Keys is rolling — 3 straight wins, 7 of 10 in recent play. Antonia Ruzic is 5-5 across recent matches.
Madison Keys has had the better of this rivalry, winning 1 of 1 against Antonia Ruzic. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Keys — worth more than the overall number this week.
Hold strength tells the story — 65.4% versus 60.2% on first-serve points in Keys's favor. The edge belongs to Keys — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
✗ Pick wrongA miss: Ann Li at 68% lost to Diane Parry (6-3 6-4).
Pick: Li
Win probability: 68% Li
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Ann Li goes up against Diane Parry in the French Open round of 64. Ann Li has won 7 of the last 10. Diane Parry is rolling — 4 straight wins, 6 of 10 in recent play.
The ledger favors Diane Parry, 1-0 across their 1 meetings with Ann Li. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Parry — worth more than the overall number this week.
Ann Li is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Li around 68%. Li should have enough here, though Parry has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Jaime Faria was our 68% pick, and won 7-5 7-6 6-2.
Pick: Faria
Win probability: 68% Faria
Jaime Faria and Jan Lennard Struff meet in the round of 64 at French Open on Thursday. Jaime Faria has won 3 in a row and 6 of the last 10 overall. Jan Lennard Struff is 4-6 across recent matches.
The ledger favors Jaime Faria, 1-0 across their 1 meetings with Jan Lennard Struff. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Faria — worth more than the overall number this week.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Faria should have enough here, though Struff has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Iva Jovic was our 67% pick, and won 6-0 6-3.
Pick: Jovic
Win probability: 67% Jovic
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Emma Navarro goes up against Iva Jovic in the French Open round of 64. Iva Jovic is rolling — 3 straight wins, 6 of 10 in recent play. Emma Navarro is 6-4 across recent matches.
The rivalry is dead level: 1-1 across 2 matches. On clay they're dead even at 1-1 — worth more than the overall number this week.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Navarro comes in off a compressed schedule; Jovic comes in off a compressed schedule. The edge belongs to Jovic — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 64% on Mccartney Kessler; Diana Shnaider won 7-6 6-1.
Pick: Kessler
Win probability: 64% Kessler
Thursday's French Open round of 64 pits Diana Shnaider against Mccartney Kessler on clay. Mccartney Kessler is 5-5 across recent matches. Diana Shnaider brings a 5-match winning streak into this one, 7-3 across the last ten.
Diana Shnaider has had the better of this rivalry, winning 1 of 1 against Mccartney Kessler. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Shnaider — worth more than the overall number this week.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. The edge belongs to Kessler — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 64% on Hubert Hurkacz; Frances Tiafoe won 6-7 7-6 6-4 6-7 6-4.
Pick: Hurkacz
Win probability: 64% Hurkacz
Frances Tiafoe and Hubert Hurkacz meet in the round of 64 at French Open on Thursday. Hubert Hurkacz has won 4 of the last 10. Frances Tiafoe is rolling — 3 straight wins, 7 of 10 in recent play.
Frances Tiafoe leads the head-to-head 4-3, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Tiafoe — worth more than the overall number this week.
Hurkacz's 75.9% behind the first serve (against 72.1% for Tiafoe) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. The edge belongs to Hurkacz — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 62% on Anastasia Potapova, who won 5-7 6-4 6-2.
Pick: Potapova
Win probability: 62% Potapova
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Anastasia Potapova goes up against Katie Boulter in the French Open round of 64. Anastasia Potapova is rolling — 3 straight wins, 8 of 10 in recent play. Katie Boulter has won 5 of the last 10.
Anastasia Potapova leads the head-to-head 1-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Potapova — worth more than the overall number this week.
Anastasia Potapova is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Potapova around 62%. Potapova should have enough here, though Boulter has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 61% on Arthur Rinderknech; Matteo Berrettini won 6-4 6-4 6-4.
Pick: Rinderknech
Win probability: 61% Rinderknech
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Arthur Rinderknech goes up against Matteo Berrettini in the French Open round of 64. Arthur Rinderknech is 6-4 across recent matches. Matteo Berrettini is rolling — 4 straight wins, 6 of 10 in recent play.
They have split their 2 previous meetings evenly at 1-1. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Berrettini — worth more than the overall number this week.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Rinderknech should have enough here, though Berrettini has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Naomi Osaka was our 60% pick, and won 7-6 6-4.
Pick: Osaka
Win probability: 60% Osaka
Donna Vekic and Naomi Osaka meet in the round of 64 at French Open on Thursday. Naomi Osaka brings a 4-match winning streak into this one, 8-2 across the last ten. Donna Vekic comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
Naomi Osaka leads the head-to-head 3-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On clay specifically it reads 2-0 Osaka — worth more than the overall number this week.
Naomi Osaka is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Osaka around 60%. The edge belongs to Osaka — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Flavio Cobolli was our 59% pick, and won 6-4 6-4 6-4.
Pick: Cobolli
Win probability: 59% Cobolli
Flavio Cobolli and Yibing Wu meet in the round of 64 at French Open on Thursday. Flavio Cobolli brings a 6-match winning streak into this one, 7-3 across the last ten. Yibing Wu is 5-5 across recent matches.
Flavio Cobolli leads the head-to-head 2-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Cobolli — worth more than the overall number this week.
Flavio Cobolli simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Cobolli gets the nod on the finest of margins.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 56% on Anna Kalinskaya, who won 7-6 6-4.
Pick: Kalinskaya
Win probability: 56% Kalinskaya
Thursday's French Open round of 64 pits Alina Korneeva against Anna Kalinskaya on clay. Anna Kalinskaya is rolling — 4 straight wins, 7 of 10 in recent play. Alina Korneeva has won 5 of the last 10.
The ledger favors Anna Kalinskaya, 1-0 across their 1 meetings with Alina Korneeva. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Kalinskaya — worth more than the overall number this week.
Anna Kalinskaya simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Kalinskaya is exactly that — a lean.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Camila Osorio was our 51% pick, and won 7-5 6-7 7-5.
Pick: Osorio
Win probability: 51% Osorio
Camila Osorio and Yulia Putintseva meet in the round of 64 at French Open on Thursday. Camila Osorio is 6-4 across recent matches. Yulia Putintseva is 6-4 across recent matches.
The ledger favors Camila Osorio, 1-0 across their 1 meetings with Yulia Putintseva. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Osorio — worth more than the overall number this week.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Little separates them; Osorio gets the nod on the finest of margins.
✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Luciano Darderi at 51%, but Francisco Comesana won 7-6 4-6 6-4 2-6 6-3.
Pick: Darderi
Win probability: 51% Darderi
Francisco Comesana and Luciano Darderi meet in the round of 64 at French Open on Thursday. Luciano Darderi has won 8 of the last 10. Francisco Comesana is rolling — 3 straight wins, 4 of 10 in recent play.
The ledger favors Francisco Comesana, 2-0 across their 2 meetings with Luciano Darderi. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Comesana — worth more than the overall number this week.
Luciano Darderi is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Darderi around 51%. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Darderi is exactly that — a lean.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 50% on Coco Gauff, who won 6-3 6-2.
Pick: Gauff
Win probability: 50% Gauff
Coco Gauff and Mayar Sherif meet in the round of 64 at French Open on Thursday. Coco Gauff is rolling — 3 straight wins, 8 of 10 in recent play. Mayar Sherif has won 1 of the last 10.
Coco Gauff leads the head-to-head 2-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Gauff — worth more than the overall number this week.
Hold strength tells the story — 65.9% versus 60.3% on first-serve points in Gauff's favor. Little separates them; Gauff gets the nod on the finest of margins.
✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 50% on Daniel Vallejo; Moise Kouame won 6-3 7-5 3-6 2-6 7-6.
Pick: Vallejo
Win probability: 50% Vallejo
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Daniel Vallejo goes up against Moise Kouame in the French Open round of 64. Daniel Vallejo is rolling — 4 straight wins, 6 of 10 in recent play. Moise Kouame is rolling — 3 straight wins, 4 of 10 in recent play.
This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.
Daniel Vallejo simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Vallejo is exactly that — a lean.