✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Jakub Mensik at 98% before the match, and Jakub Mensik won 6-3 2-6 6-4 1-6 7-6.
Pick: Mensik
Win probability: 98% Mensik
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Jakub Mensik goes up against Mariano Navone in the French Open round of 64. Jakub Mensik has won 5 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall. Mariano Navone is 7-3 across recent matches.
Jakub Mensik has had the better of this rivalry, winning 1 of 1 against Mariano Navone. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Mensik — worth more than the overall number this week.
Mensik's 76.8% behind the first serve (against 62.6% for Navone) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. If Mensik plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Sorana Cirstea at 95% before the match, and Sorana Cirstea won 6-3 6-0.
Pick: Cirstea
Win probability: 95% Cirstea
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Eva Lys goes up against Sorana Cirstea in the French Open round of 64. Sorana Cirstea has won 4 in a row and 8 of the last 10 overall. Eva Lys has won 3 of the last 10.
Sorana Cirstea has had the better of this rivalry, winning 2 of 3 against Eva Lys. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Cirstea — worth more than the overall number this week.
Cirstea's 62.9% behind the first serve (against 58.1% for Lys) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. If Cirstea plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Rafael Jodar was our 94% pick, and won 6-1 6-7 6-4 7-5.
Pick: Jodar
Win probability: 94% Jodar
Wednesday's French Open round of 64 pits James Duckworth against Rafael Jodar on clay. Rafael Jodar brings a 4-match winning streak into this one, 8-2 across the last ten. James Duckworth has won 2 of the last 10.
Rafael Jodar has had the better of this rivalry, winning 1 of 1 against James Duckworth. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Jodar — worth more than the overall number this week.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. Anything other than a Jodar win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Alycia Parks at 92%, but Viktorija Golubic won 6-2 6-2.
Pick: Parks
Win probability: 92% Parks
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Alycia Parks goes up against Viktorija Golubic in the French Open round of 64. Alycia Parks is 5-5 across recent matches. Viktorija Golubic comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
Viktorija Golubic leads the head-to-head 1-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Golubic — worth more than the overall number this week.
The serve is where this match separates: Parks has been winning 68.9% of first-serve points to Golubic's 58%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. If Parks plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Quentin Halys was our 91% pick, and won 6-4 7-6 7-6.
Pick: Halys
Win probability: 91% Halys
Quentin Halys and Ugo Humbert meet in the round of 64 at French Open on Wednesday. Quentin Halys comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Ugo Humbert has won 5 of the last 10.
Quentin Halys has had the better of this rivalry, winning 1 of 1 against Ugo Humbert. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Halys — worth more than the overall number this week.
The serve is where this match separates: Halys has been winning 77% of first-serve points to Humbert's 73.1%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. Anything other than a Halys win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 91% on Thiago Agustin Tirante, who won 4-6 7-6 6-1 6-3.
Pick: Tirante
Win probability: 91% Tirante
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Thiago Agustin Tirante meet in the round of 64 at French Open on Wednesday. Thiago Agustin Tirante has won 7 of the last 10. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has won 5 of the last 10.
They have split their 2 previous meetings evenly at 1-1. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Tirante — worth more than the overall number this week.
Tirante's 71.8% behind the first serve (against 66.9% for Fokina) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Fokina needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 88% on Alexander Zverev, who won 6-4 6-2 6-2.
Pick: Zverev
Win probability: 88% Zverev
Wednesday's French Open round of 64 pits Alexander Zverev against Tomas Machac on clay. Alexander Zverev has won 9 in a row and 9 of the last 10 overall. Tomas Machac comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
The ledger favors Alexander Zverev, 2-0 across their 2 meetings with Tomas Machac. On clay specifically it reads 2-0 Zverev — worth more than the overall number this week.
Hold strength tells the story — 73% versus 69% on first-serve points in Zverev's favor. If Zverev plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Marta Kostyuk at 85% before the match, and Marta Kostyuk won 6-7 6-3 6-3.
Pick: Kostyuk
Win probability: 85% Kostyuk
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Katie Volynets goes up against Marta Kostyuk in the French Open round of 64. Marta Kostyuk is rolling — 5 straight wins, 9 of 10 in recent play. Katie Volynets is 3-7 across recent matches.
The rivalry is dead level: 1-1 across 2 matches. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Kostyuk — worth more than the overall number this week.
Kostyuk's 63.3% behind the first serve (against 57% for Volynets) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Volynets needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Jesper De Jong was our 84% pick, and won 6-3 6-1 6-3.
Pick: Jong
Win probability: 84% Jong
Wednesday's French Open round of 64 pits Federico Cina against Jesper De Jong on clay. Jesper De Jong is rolling — 3 straight wins, 4 of 10 in recent play. Federico Cina has won 3 of the last 10.
The ledger favors Jesper De Jong, 1-0 across their 1 meetings with Federico Cina. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Jong — worth more than the overall number this week.
Jong's 71.8% behind the first serve (against 67.1% for Cina) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Cina needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 84% on Karolina Muchova, who won 6-2 6-2.
Pick: Muchova
Win probability: 84% Muchova
Wednesday's French Open round of 64 pits Kamilla Rakhimova against Karolina Muchova on clay. Karolina Muchova has won 7 of the last 10. Kamilla Rakhimova has won 4 of the last 10.
Karolina Muchova has had the better of this rivalry, winning 2 of 2 against Kamilla Rakhimova. On clay specifically it reads 2-0 Muchova — worth more than the overall number this week.
Karolina Muchova simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. Rakhimova needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Novak Djokovic was our 82% pick, and won 6-3 6-2 6-7 6-3.
Pick: Djokovic
Win probability: 82% Djokovic
Novak Djokovic and Valentin Royer meet in the round of 64 at French Open on Wednesday. Novak Djokovic comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Valentin Royer is 2-8 across recent matches.
The ledger favors Novak Djokovic, 1-0 across their 1 meetings with Valentin Royer. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Djokovic — worth more than the overall number this week.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. Royer needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 81% on Magda Linette, who won 6-2 2-6 6-2.
Pick: Linette
Win probability: 81% Linette
Jelena Ostapenko and Magda Linette meet in the round of 64 at French Open on Wednesday. Magda Linette comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Jelena Ostapenko is 6-4 across recent matches.
Magda Linette has had the better of this rivalry, winning 2 of 3 against Jelena Ostapenko. On clay specifically it reads 2-0 Linette — worth more than the overall number this week.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Anything other than a Linette win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Iga Swiatek at 79% before the match, and Iga Swiatek won 6-2 6-3.
Pick: Swiatek
Win probability: 79% Swiatek
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Iga Swiatek goes up against Sara Bejlek in the French Open round of 64. Iga Swiatek is rolling — 3 straight wins, 8 of 10 in recent play. Sara Bejlek has won 4 of the last 10.
Iga Swiatek has had the better of this rivalry, winning 1 of 1 against Sara Bejlek. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Swiatek — worth more than the overall number this week.
Swiatek's 64.6% behind the first serve (against 57.3% for Bejlek) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. If Swiatek plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Marie Bouzkova at 79% before the match, and Marie Bouzkova won 6-0 7-6.
Pick: Bouzkova
Win probability: 79% Bouzkova
Wednesday's French Open round of 64 pits Francesca Jones against Marie Bouzkova on clay. Marie Bouzkova has won 5 of the last 10. Francesca Jones has won 3 of the last 10.
Marie Bouzkova has had the better of this rivalry, winning 1 of 1 against Francesca Jones. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Bouzkova — worth more than the overall number this week.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. If Bouzkova plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Elina Svitolina was our 77% pick, and won 6-0 6-4.
Pick: Svitolina
Win probability: 77% Svitolina
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Elina Svitolina goes up against Kaitlin Quevedo in the French Open round of 64. Elina Svitolina has won 4 in a row and 9 of the last 10 overall. Kaitlin Quevedo has won 5 of the last 10.
Elina Svitolina has had the better of this rivalry, winning 1 of 1 against Kaitlin Quevedo. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Svitolina — worth more than the overall number this week.
Svitolina's 63.8% behind the first serve (against 59.5% for Quevedo) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Quevedo needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Belinda Bencic at 74% before the match, and Belinda Bencic won 6-4 6-0.
Pick: Bencic
Win probability: 74% Bencic
Belinda Bencic and Caty Mcnally meet in the round of 64 at French Open on Wednesday. Belinda Bencic is rolling — 3 straight wins, 7 of 10 in recent play. Caty Mcnally has won 6 of the last 10.
Belinda Bencic leads the head-to-head 1-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Bencic — worth more than the overall number this week.
Hold strength tells the story — 66.6% versus 60.1% on first-serve points in Bencic's favor. Mcnally needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Peyton Stearns at 73% before the match, and Peyton Stearns won 6-4 6-0.
Pick: Stearns
Win probability: 73% Stearns
Daria Snigur and Peyton Stearns meet in the round of 64 at French Open on Wednesday. Peyton Stearns is 6-4 across recent matches. Daria Snigur has won 5 of the last 10.
Peyton Stearns leads the head-to-head 1-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Stearns — worth more than the overall number this week.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Anything other than a Stearns win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 71% on Elena Rybakina; Yuliia Starodubtseva won 3-6 6-1 7-6.
Pick: Rybakina
Win probability: 71% Rybakina
Wednesday's French Open round of 64 pits Elena Rybakina against Yuliia Starodubtseva on clay. Elena Rybakina is 7-3 across recent matches. Yuliia Starodubtseva comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
Yuliia Starodubtseva leads the head-to-head 1-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Starodubtseva — worth more than the overall number this week.
Hold strength tells the story — 70.1% versus 59.5% on first-serve points in Rybakina's favor. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Rybakina.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Tommy Paul was our 70% pick, and won 6-3 6-2 6-4.
Pick: Paul
Win probability: 70% Paul
Lorenzo Sonego and Tommy Paul meet in the round of 64 at French Open on Wednesday. Tommy Paul has won 7 of the last 10. Lorenzo Sonego has won 4 of the last 10.
Tommy Paul leads the head-to-head 3-1, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Paul — worth more than the overall number this week.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Paul — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Casper Ruud at 67% before the match, and Casper Ruud won 6-3 6-2 6-4.
Pick: Ruud
Win probability: 67% Ruud
Wednesday's French Open round of 64 pits Casper Ruud against Hamad Medjedovic on clay. Casper Ruud brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 8-2 across the last ten. Hamad Medjedovic comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.
Casper Ruud has had the better of this rivalry, winning 2 of 2 against Hamad Medjedovic. On clay specifically it reads 2-0 Ruud — worth more than the overall number this week.
Casper Ruud simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. Ruud should have enough here, though Medjedovic has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Karen Khachanov was our 67% pick, and won 7-6 5-7 6-1 7-6.
Pick: Khachanov
Win probability: 67% Khachanov
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Karen Khachanov goes up against Marco Trungelliti in the French Open round of 64. Karen Khachanov is 7-3 across recent matches. Marco Trungelliti comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
Karen Khachanov leads the head-to-head 1-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Khachanov — worth more than the overall number this week.
The serve is where this match separates: Khachanov has been winning 72.1% of first-serve points to Trungelliti's 67.6%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. Khachanov should have enough here, though Trungelliti has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Nishesh Basavareddy at 61%, but Alex Michelsen won 7-6 6-3 3-6 6-3.
Pick: Basavareddy
Win probability: 61% Basavareddy
Alex Michelsen and Nishesh Basavareddy meet in the round of 64 at French Open on Wednesday. Nishesh Basavareddy comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Alex Michelsen has won 5 of the last 10.
Alex Michelsen has had the better of this rivalry, winning 2 of 3 against Nishesh Basavareddy. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Michelsen — worth more than the overall number this week.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Basavareddy should have enough here, though Michelsen has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Jil Teichmann at 56% before the match, and Jil Teichmann won 7-5 6-4.
Pick: Teichmann
Win probability: 56% Teichmann
Wednesday's French Open round of 64 pits Jil Teichmann against Magdalena Frech on clay. Jil Teichmann is rolling — 3 straight wins, 7 of 10 in recent play. Magdalena Frech comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.
Jil Teichmann leads the head-to-head 1-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Teichmann — worth more than the overall number this week.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Teichmann is exactly that — a lean.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Joao Fonseca at 55% before the match, and Joao Fonseca won 3-6 4-6 6-3 6-1 6-2.
Pick: Fonseca
Win probability: 55% Fonseca
Wednesday's French Open round of 64 pits Dino Prizmic against Joao Fonseca on clay. Joao Fonseca has won 4 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall. Dino Prizmic is 7-3 across recent matches.
Joao Fonseca has had the better of this rivalry, winning 1 of 1 against Dino Prizmic. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Fonseca — worth more than the overall number this week.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Fonseca gets the nod on the finest of margins.
✗ Pick wrongA miss: Jasmine Paolini at 54% lost to Solana Sierra (3-6 6-4 6-3).
Pick: Paolini
Win probability: 54% Paolini
Wednesday's French Open round of 64 pits Jasmine Paolini against Solana Sierra on clay. Jasmine Paolini has won 5 of the last 10. Solana Sierra has won 7 of the last 10.
Solana Sierra has had the better of this rivalry, winning 1 of 1 against Jasmine Paolini. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Sierra — worth more than the overall number this week.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Paolini fractionally more likely to land the big points.
✗ Pick wrongA miss: Camilo Ugo Carabelli at 53% lost to Andrey Rublev (6-1 1-6 6-3 7-6).
Pick: Carabelli
Win probability: 53% Carabelli
Andrey Rublev and Camilo Ugo Carabelli meet in the round of 64 at French Open on Wednesday. Camilo Ugo Carabelli has won 5 of the last 10. Andrey Rublev has won 3 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall.
Andrey Rublev leads the head-to-head 2-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On clay specifically it reads 2-0 Rublev — worth more than the overall number this week.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Little separates them; Carabelli gets the nod on the finest of margins.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Nuno Borges was our 50% pick, and won 3-6 6-2 6-1 6-2.
Pick: Borges
Win probability: 50% Borges
Wednesday's French Open round of 64 pits Miomir Kecmanovic against Nuno Borges on clay. Nuno Borges has won 5 of the last 10. Miomir Kecmanovic is 3-7 across recent matches.
Nuno Borges leads the head-to-head 2-1, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Borges — worth more than the overall number this week.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Borges fractionally more likely to land the big points.