✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Amanda Anisimova at 61%, but Iva Jovic won 6-2 3-6 6-3.
Pick: Anisimova
Win probability: 61% Anisimova
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Amanda Anisimova goes up against Iva Jovic in the London quarterfinal. Amanda Anisimova comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Iva Jovic comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.
This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Anisimova.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 50% on Marin Cilic, who won 3-6 7-6 6-3.
Pick: Cilic
Win probability: 50% Cilic
Marin Cilic and Nuno Borges meet in the round of 16 at Hertogenbosch on Friday. Marin Cilic comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. Nuno Borges is 6-4 across recent matches.
Nothing separates them historically — the head-to-head sits at 1-1.
Cilic's 76.4% behind the first serve (against 71% for Borges) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Cilic is exactly that — a lean.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Alex De Minaur was our 56% pick, and won 6-2 6-4.
Pick: Minaur
Win probability: 56% Minaur
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Alex De Minaur goes up against Benjamin Bonzi in the Hertogenbosch quarterfinal. Alex De Minaur comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Benjamin Bonzi is rolling — 3 straight wins, 6 of 10 in recent play.
Alex De Minaur leads the head-to-head 3-1, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one.
Alex De Minaur is clearly higher-rated on grass — our number puts Minaur around 56%. Bonzi comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Minaur is exactly that — a lean.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 59% on Donna Vekic, who won 7-6 6-3.
Pick: Vekic
Win probability: 59% Vekic
Donna Vekic and Marie Bouzkova meet in the round of 16 at London on Friday. Donna Vekic is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (5 of the last 10). Marie Bouzkova has won 5 of the last 10.
This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.
The serve is where this match separates: Vekic has been winning 68.6% of first-serve points to Bouzkova's 61.8%, and on grass that gap compounds fast. Little separates them; Vekic gets the nod on the finest of margins.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Elena Rybakina at 65% before the match, and Elena Rybakina won 6-7 7-5 6-0.
Pick: Rybakina
Win probability: 65% Rybakina
Friday's London round of 16 pits Elena Rybakina against Tatjana Maria on grass. Elena Rybakina comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Tatjana Maria has won 3 in a row and 6 of the last 10 overall.
The rivalry is dead level: 1-1 across 2 matches. On grass specifically it reads 1-0 Maria — worth more than the overall number this week.
The serve is where this match separates: Rybakina has been winning 70.1% of first-serve points to Maria's 65.7%, and on grass that gap compounds fast. Maria comes in off a compressed schedule. The edge belongs to Rybakina — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Barbora Krejcikova was our 60% pick, and won 6-1 6-2.
Pick: Krejcikova
Win probability: 60% Krejcikova
Friday's Hertogenbosch quarterfinal pits Barbora Krejcikova against Elena Gabriela Ruse on grass. Barbora Krejcikova is 4-6 across recent matches. Elena Gabriela Ruse is 6-4 across recent matches.
Barbora Krejcikova has had the better of this rivalry, winning 2 of 3 against Elena Gabriela Ruse.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on grass, and our number follows from it. Krejcikova comes in off a compressed schedule; Ruse comes in off a compressed schedule. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Krejcikova.
✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 52% on Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard; Alexander Bublik won 7-6 7-6.
Pick: Perricard
Win probability: 52% Perricard
Friday's Stuttgart quarterfinal pits Alexander Bublik against Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard on grass. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard comes in at 3 wins from the last ten. Alexander Bublik is 4-6 across recent matches.
The ledger favors Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, 2-1 across their 3 meetings with Alexander Bublik.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Perricard is exactly that — a lean.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Taylor Fritz at 75% before the match, and Taylor Fritz won 5-7 7-5 7-5.
Pick: Fritz
Win probability: 75% Fritz
Friday's Stuttgart quarterfinal pits Mattia Bellucci against Taylor Fritz on grass. Taylor Fritz has won 5 of the last 10. Mattia Bellucci is 4-6 across recent matches.
This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.
Taylor Fritz simply rates much higher on grass, and our number follows from it. Fritz comes in off a compressed schedule. Anything other than a Fritz win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Ben Shelton was our 74% pick, and won 6-7 6-4 7-6.
Pick: Shelton
Win probability: 74% Shelton
Friday's Stuttgart round of 16 pits Ben Shelton against Marcos Giron on grass. Ben Shelton comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Marcos Giron comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.
Ben Shelton leads the head-to-head 2-1, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one.
Hold strength tells the story — 74.1% versus 70.2% on first-serve points in Shelton's favor. Giron comes in off a compressed schedule. Anything other than a Shelton win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Jiri Lehecka at 84% before the match, and Jiri Lehecka won 6-4 7-6.
Pick: Lehecka
Win probability: 84% Lehecka
Frances Tiafoe and Jiri Lehecka meet in the quarterfinal at Stuttgart on Friday. Jiri Lehecka comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Frances Tiafoe has won 8 of the last 10.
The ledger favors Frances Tiafoe, 2-1 across their 3 meetings with Jiri Lehecka. On grass specifically it reads 1-0 Tiafoe — worth more than the overall number this week.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Anything other than a Lehecka win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 70% on Robin Montgomery, who won 6-4 6-4.
Pick: Montgomery
Win probability: 70% Montgomery
Friday's Hertogenbosch quarterfinal pits Daria Snigur against Robin Montgomery on grass. Robin Montgomery has won 4 in a row and 5 of the last 10 overall. Daria Snigur comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.
This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.
Hold strength tells the story — 65.7% versus 58.6% on first-serve points in Montgomery's favor. Snigur comes in off a compressed schedule; Montgomery comes in off a compressed schedule. Montgomery should have enough here, though Snigur has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Sorana Cirstea at 58%, but Emma Raducanu won 6-4 6-1.
Pick: Cirstea
Win probability: 58% Cirstea
Friday's London round of 16 pits Emma Raducanu against Sorana Cirstea on grass. Sorana Cirstea has won 5 in a row and 9 of the last 10 overall. Emma Raducanu is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (5 of the last 10).
They have split their 2 previous meetings evenly at 1-1. On grass specifically it reads 1-0 Raducanu — worth more than the overall number this week.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Raducanu comes in off a compressed schedule; Cirstea comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Cirstea gets the nod on the finest of margins.
✗ Pick wrongA miss: Elena Rybakina at 79% lost to Katie Boulter (7-5 2-6 6-4).
Pick: Rybakina
Win probability: 79% Rybakina
Elena Rybakina and Katie Boulter meet in the quarterfinal at London on Friday. Elena Rybakina is 6-4 across recent matches. Katie Boulter has won 5 of the last 10.
Elena Rybakina leads the head-to-head 2-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On grass specifically it reads 1-0 Rybakina — worth more than the overall number this week.
Elena Rybakina is clearly higher-rated on grass — our number puts Rybakina around 79%. Rybakina is running on fumes after a brutal stretch of scheduling; Boulter is running on fumes after a brutal stretch of scheduling. Anything other than a Rybakina win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Adrian Mannarino was our 70% pick, and won 7-6 6-3.
Pick: Mannarino
Win probability: 70% Mannarino
Friday's Hertogenbosch quarterfinal pits Adrian Mannarino against Ze Zhang on grass. Adrian Mannarino comes in at 3 wins from the last ten. Ze Zhang has won 4 of the last 10.
The ledger favors Adrian Mannarino, 1-0 across their 1 meetings with Ze Zhang.
The serve is where this match separates: Mannarino has been winning 70.3% of first-serve points to Zhang's 65.8%, and on grass that gap compounds fast. Mannarino comes in off a compressed schedule; Zhang comes in off a compressed schedule. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Mannarino.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Kamilla Rakhimova at 51% before the match, and Kamilla Rakhimova won 5-7 6-1 7-5.
Pick: Rakhimova
Win probability: 51% Rakhimova
Friday's London round of 16 pits Harriet Dart against Kamilla Rakhimova on grass. Kamilla Rakhimova comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. Harriet Dart has won 2 of the last 10.
This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.
Kamilla Rakhimova simply rates much higher on grass, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Rakhimova gets the nod on the finest of margins.
✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Dayana Yastremska at 75%, but Ajla Tomljanovic won 4-6 6-4 7-5.
Pick: Yastremska
Win probability: 75% Yastremska
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Ajla Tomljanovic goes up against Dayana Yastremska in the Hertogenbosch round of 16. Dayana Yastremska has won 4 of the last 10. Ajla Tomljanovic limps in on a 5-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10.
Dayana Yastremska has had the better of this rivalry, winning 3 of 3 against Ajla Tomljanovic.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Tomljanovic comes in off a compressed schedule. If Yastremska plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Magda Linette at 59% before the match, and Magda Linette won 6-4 6-2.
Pick: Linette
Win probability: 59% Linette
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Magda Linette goes up against Zeynep Sonmez in the Hertogenbosch quarterfinal. Magda Linette brings a 4-match winning streak into this one, 6-4 across the last ten. Zeynep Sonmez has won 6 of the last 10.
The ledger favors Zeynep Sonmez, 1-0 across their 1 meetings with Magda Linette.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Linette comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Linette fractionally more likely to land the big points.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 72% on Daniil Medvedev, who won 6-3 4-6 7-6.
Pick: Medvedev
Win probability: 72% Medvedev
Friday's Hertogenbosch round of 16 pits Thijs Boogaard against Daniil Medvedev on grass. Daniil Medvedev is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (6 of the last 10). Thijs Boogaard has won 1 of the last 10.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on grass, and our number follows from it. Boogaard comes in off a compressed schedule. Medvedev should have enough here, though Boogaard has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Caty Mcnally was our 79% pick, and won 6-4 6-3.
Pick: Mcnally
Win probability: 79% Mcnally
Caty Mcnally and Solana Sierra meet in the round of 16 at Hertogenbosch on Friday. Caty Mcnally is 6-4 across recent matches. Solana Sierra has won 4 in a row and 8 of the last 10 overall.
Solana Sierra leads the head-to-head 1-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on grass, and our number follows from it. Anything other than a Mcnally win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 86% on Katie Boulter, who won 6-1 6-3.
Pick: Boulter
Win probability: 86% Boulter
Friday's London round of 16 pits Jaqueline Cristian against Katie Boulter on grass. Katie Boulter has won 5 of the last 10. Jaqueline Cristian is 6-4 across recent matches.
Katie Boulter has had the better of this rivalry, winning 2 of 2 against Jaqueline Cristian.
Hold strength tells the story — 67.7% versus 63.3% on first-serve points in Boulter's favor. Boulter comes in off a compressed schedule. If Boulter plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.