Estoril Predictions & Picks — July 21, 2026

A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Pablo Carreno Busta goes up against Vilius Gaubas in the Estoril round of 32. Pablo Carreno Busta comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Vilius Gaubas is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (2 of the last 10).

The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.

Busta's 68.1% behind the first serve (against 64.8% for Gaubas) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Gaubas needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.

Tuesday's Estoril round of 32 pits Gonzalo Bueno against T. Pereira on clay. Gonzalo Bueno has dropped 2 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten. T. Pereira has won 3 of the last 10.

The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. Pereira needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.

Daniel Merida Aguilar and Taro Daniel meet in the round of 32 at Estoril on Tuesday. Daniel Merida Aguilar brings a 5-match winning streak into this one, 7-3 across the last ten. Taro Daniel has dropped 2 straight and sits at 7-3 over the last ten.

The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.

Daniel Merida Aguilar is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Aguilar around 61%. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Aguilar.

Jan Choinski and Jesper De Jong meet in the round of 32 at Estoril on Tuesday. Jan Choinski comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Jesper De Jong is 5-5 across recent matches.

There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.

Jan Choinski is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Choinski around 58%. Little separates them; Choinski gets the nod on the finest of margins.

Roman Andres Burruchaga and Stan Wawrinka meet in the round of 32 at Estoril on Tuesday. Roman Andres Burruchaga has won 4 of the last 10. Stan Wawrinka is searching for form, having lost 5 in a row (2 of the last 10).

There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.

Roman Andres Burruchaga is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Burruchaga around 53%. Little separates them; Burruchaga gets the nod on the finest of margins.

Botic Van De Zandschulp and Jaime Faria meet in the round of 32 at Estoril on Tuesday. Jaime Faria has won 5 of the last 10. Botic Van De Zandschulp has won 3 of the last 10.

This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.

On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Faria is exactly that — a lean.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Damir Dzumhur goes up against Hugo Gaston in the Estoril round of 32. Damir Dzumhur has won 5 of the last 10. Hugo Gaston has dropped 2 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten.

The ledger favors Damir Dzumhur, 2-0 across their 2 meetings with Hugo Gaston. On clay specifically it reads 2-0 Dzumhur — worth more than the overall number this week.

Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Dzumhur fractionally more likely to land the big points.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Daniel Merida Aguilar goes up against Kyrian Jacquet in the Estoril round of 32. Daniel Merida Aguilar has won 5 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall. Kyrian Jacquet is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (2 of the last 10).

There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.

Daniel Merida Aguilar is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Aguilar around 76%. Jacquet needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.