7 matches are on Friday's card at Montreal, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Casper Ruud against Joao Fonseca in the round of 32. Our calls: Fonseca over Ruud, Tiafoe over Rinderknech, Shelton over Bergs, Mensik over Atmane, Michelsen over Aguilar, Hurkacz over Zandschulp, and 1 more.
Pick: Tiafoe
Win probability: 57% Tiafoe · Sets: 2 (59%) · most likely score 2-0 (34%)
Arthur Rinderknech and Frances Tiafoe meet in the round of 32 at Montreal on Friday. Frances Tiafoe comes in at 8 wins from the last ten. Arthur Rinderknech comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
Frances Tiafoe is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Tiafoe around 57%. Little separates them; Tiafoe gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Michelsen
Win probability: 68% Michelsen · Sets: 3 (44%) · most likely score 2-0 (40%)
Alex Michelsen and Daniel Merida Aguilar meet in the round of 32 at Montreal on Friday. Alex Michelsen has won 9 of the last 10. Daniel Merida Aguilar comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.
Michelsen's 69.8% behind the first serve (against 63.8% for Aguilar) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Michelsen.
Pick: Shelton
Win probability: 66% Shelton · Sets: 2 (60%) · most likely score 2-0 (41%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Ben Shelton goes up against Zizou Bergs in the Montreal round of 32. Ben Shelton has won 7 of the last 10. Zizou Bergs is 7-3 across recent matches.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Shelton.
Pick: Mensik
Win probability: 64% Mensik · Sets: 3 (42%) · most likely score 2-0 (38%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Jakub Mensik goes up against Terence Atmane in the Montreal round of 32. Jakub Mensik has won 6 of the last 10. Terence Atmane is 3-7 across recent matches.
Hold strength tells the story — 76.6% versus 72.8% on first-serve points in Mensik's favor. Mensik should have enough here, though Atmane has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Hurkacz
Win probability: 63% Hurkacz · Sets: 2 (61%) · most likely score 2-0 (39%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Botic Van De Zandschulp goes up against Hubert Hurkacz in the Montreal round of 32. Hubert Hurkacz brings a 5-match winning streak into this one, 7-3 across the last ten. Botic Van De Zandschulp is 4-6 across recent matches.
The serve is where this match separates: Hurkacz has been winning 75.8% of first-serve points to Zandschulp's 72%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Hurkacz should have enough here, though Zandschulp has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Griekspoor
Win probability: 62% Griekspoor · Sets: 3 (45%) · most likely score 2-0 (35%)
Friday's Montreal round of 32 pits Matteo Arnaldi against Tallon Griekspoor on hard. Tallon Griekspoor comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. Matteo Arnaldi has won 6 of the last 10.
Matteo Arnaldi has had the better of this rivalry, winning 1 of 1 against Tallon Griekspoor.
Hold strength tells the story — 73.2% versus 70% on first-serve points in Griekspoor's favor. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Griekspoor.
Pick: Fonseca
Win probability: 57% Fonseca · Sets: 3 (45%) · most likely score 2-0 (31%)
Friday's Montreal round of 32 pits Casper Ruud against Joao Fonseca on hard. Joao Fonseca comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Casper Ruud comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.
Joao Fonseca has had the better of this rivalry, winning 1 of 1 against Casper Ruud.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Fonseca gets the nod on the finest of margins.
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