8 matches are on Friday's card at Toronto, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Belinda Bencic against Taylor Townsend in the round of 32. Our calls: Bencic over Townsend, Osaka over Mertens, Gauff over Sakkari, Andreeva over Fernandez, Svitolina over Potapova, Rybakina over Li, and 2 more.
Pick: Rybakina
Win probability: 84% Rybakina · Sets: 2 (69%) · most likely score 2-0 (60%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Ann Li goes up against Elena Rybakina in the Toronto round of 32. Elena Rybakina comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Ann Li is 5-5 across recent matches.
The serve is where this match separates: Rybakina has been winning 70.1% of first-serve points to Li's 65.2%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. If Rybakina plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
Pick: Bencic
Win probability: 62% Bencic · Sets: 2 (64%) · most likely score 2-0 (41%)
Friday's Toronto round of 32 pits Belinda Bencic against Taylor Townsend on hard. Belinda Bencic is 8-2 across recent matches. Taylor Townsend has won 5 of the last 10.
Belinda Bencic is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Bencic around 62%. The edge belongs to Bencic — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Jovic
Win probability: 71% Jovic · Sets: 2 (67%) · most likely score 2-0 (49%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Alina Korneeva goes up against Iva Jovic in the Toronto round of 32. Iva Jovic comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Alina Korneeva is 3-7 across recent matches.
Iva Jovic is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Jovic around 71%. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Jovic.
Pick: Andreeva
Win probability: 71% Andreeva · Sets: 2 (69%) · most likely score 2-0 (51%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Leylah Fernandez goes up against Mirra Andreeva in the Toronto round of 32. Mirra Andreeva comes in at 8 wins from the last ten. Leylah Fernandez comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
Mirra Andreeva simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Andreeva.
Pick: Samsonova
Win probability: 61% Samsonova · Sets: 2 (64%) · most likely score 2-0 (41%)
Friday's Toronto round of 32 pits Liudmila Samsonova against Maya Joint on hard. Liudmila Samsonova comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Maya Joint comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
Hold strength tells the story — 69.4% versus 60% on first-serve points in Samsonova's favor. Samsonova should have enough here, though Joint has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Osaka
Win probability: 56% Osaka · Sets: 2 (64%) · most likely score 2-0 (37%)
Elise Mertens and Naomi Osaka meet in the round of 32 at Toronto on Friday. Naomi Osaka comes in at 8 wins from the last ten. Elise Mertens has won 7 of the last 10.
Osaka's 71.1% behind the first serve (against 63.4% for Mertens) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Osaka is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Gauff
Win probability: 69% Gauff · Sets: 2 (67%) · most likely score 2-0 (49%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Coco Gauff goes up against Maria Sakkari in the Toronto round of 32. Coco Gauff comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Maria Sakkari has won 5 of the last 10.
Coco Gauff is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Gauff around 69%. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Gauff.
Pick: Svitolina
Win probability: 68% Svitolina · Sets: 2 (65%) · most likely score 2-0 (46%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Anastasia Potapova goes up against Elina Svitolina in the Toronto round of 32. Elina Svitolina has won 6 of the last 10. Anastasia Potapova comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.
Elina Svitolina is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Svitolina around 68%. Svitolina should have enough here, though Potapova has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
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