Cincinnati Predictions & Picks — August 15, 2026

Saturday's Cincinnati first round pits Aleksandar Kovacevic against Karen Khachanov on hard. Karen Khachanov is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (5 of the last 10). Aleksandar Kovacevic has dropped 7 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Khachanov should have enough here, though Kovacevic has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

Novak Djokovic and Thiago Agustin Tirante meet in the round of 64 at Cincinnati on Saturday. Novak Djokovic has won 7 of the last 10. Thiago Agustin Tirante has won 7 of the last 10.

Novak Djokovic is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Djokovic around 77%. If Djokovic plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.

Saturday's Cincinnati round of 64 pits Jakub Mensik against Mattia Bellucci on hard. Jakub Mensik has won 5 of the last 10. Mattia Bellucci limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10.

Mensik's 76.6% behind the first serve (against 71.7% for Bellucci) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. The edge belongs to Mensik — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

Denis Shapovalov and Rafael Jodar meet in the round of 64 at Cincinnati on Saturday. Rafael Jodar is 8-2 across recent matches. Denis Shapovalov is 6-4 across recent matches.

Rafael Jodar simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Jodar.

Saturday's Cincinnati round of 64 pits Alejandro Tabilo against Jan Lennard Struff on hard. Alejandro Tabilo has dropped 2 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten. Jan Lennard Struff has won 6 of the last 10.

Alejandro Tabilo is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Tabilo around 64%. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Tabilo.

Saturday's Cincinnati round of 64 pits Luciano Darderi against Rinky Hijikata on hard. Luciano Darderi is 7-3 across recent matches. Rinky Hijikata has dropped 4 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten.

The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Darderi should have enough here, though Hijikata has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

Alexander Blockx and Mariano Navone meet in the round of 64 at Cincinnati on Saturday. Alexander Blockx limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10. Mariano Navone comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.

The serve is where this match separates: Blockx has been winning 74.2% of first-serve points to Navone's 62.4%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Little separates them; Blockx gets the nod on the finest of margins.

Saturday's Cincinnati round of 64 pits Flavio Cobolli against Miomir Kecmanovic on hard. Flavio Cobolli limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10. Miomir Kecmanovic has won 5 of the last 10.

Flavio Cobolli is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Cobolli around 58%. Little separates them; Cobolli gets the nod on the finest of margins.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Saturday, when Martin Landaluce goes up against Matteo Arnaldi in the Cincinnati round of 64. Matteo Arnaldi has won 6 of the last 10. Martin Landaluce comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.

On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Arnaldi fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Terence Atmane and Tomas Martin Etcheverry meet in the round of 64 at Cincinnati on Saturday. Terence Atmane comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. Tomas Martin Etcheverry limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 2 wins in 10.

On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Little separates them; Atmane gets the nod on the finest of margins.

Saturday's Cincinnati round of 64 pits Daniel Vallejo against Valentin Vacherot on hard. Valentin Vacherot has dropped 3 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten. Daniel Vallejo limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10.

The serve is where this match separates: Vacherot has been winning 71.9% of first-serve points to Vallejo's 64.9%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Vallejo comes in off a compressed schedule. Vallejo needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.

Alex De Minaur and Quentin Halys meet in the round of 64 at Cincinnati on Saturday. Alex De Minaur comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Quentin Halys has won 6 in a row and 8 of the last 10 overall.

Alex De Minaur is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Minaur around 67%. Halys comes in off a compressed schedule. Minaur should have enough here, though Halys has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

Hubert Hurkacz and Tommy Paul meet in the round of 64 at Cincinnati on Saturday. Tommy Paul is 6-4 across recent matches. Hubert Hurkacz comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Hurkacz comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Paul is exactly that — a lean.

Arthur Fery and James Duckworth meet in the round of 64 at Cincinnati on Saturday. Arthur Fery is 7-3 across recent matches. James Duckworth has won 5 of the last 10.

The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Duckworth comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Fery fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Saturday's Cincinnati round of 64 pits Jiri Lehecka against Matteo Berrettini on hard. Jiri Lehecka is 6-4 across recent matches. Matteo Berrettini has dropped 2 straight and sits at 6-4 over the last ten.

Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Lehecka fractionally more likely to land the big points.