3 matches are on Thursday's card at Cincinnati, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Elena Rybakina against Iga Swiatek in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Rybakina over Swiatek, Pegula over Anisimova, Sabalenka over Bejlek.
The boldest call on the card: Rybakina over Swiatek — the market disagrees with us there.
Pick: Sabalenka
Win probability: 80% Sabalenka · Market: -586 · Sets: 2 (69%) · most likely score 2-0 (58%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Aryna Sabalenka goes up against Sara Bejlek in the Cincinnati round of 16. Aryna Sabalenka is 7-3 across recent matches. Sara Bejlek is rolling — 3 straight wins, 7 of 10 in recent play.
Hold strength tells the story — 67% versus 57.7% on first-serve points in Sabalenka's favor. Bejlek needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
Pick: RybakinaUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Swiatek the favorite; our numbers say Rybakina.
Win probability: 58% Rybakina · Market: +142 · Sets: 2 (63%) · most likely score 2-0 (39%)
Thursday's Cincinnati quarterfinal pits Elena Rybakina against Iga Swiatek on hard. Elena Rybakina has won 4 in a row and 8 of the last 10 overall. Iga Swiatek has won 9 in a row and 9 of the last 10 overall.
Hold strength tells the story — 70% versus 63.9% on first-serve points in Rybakina's favor. Little separates them; Rybakina gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Pegula
Win probability: 57% Pegula · Market: -120 · Sets: 2 (63%) · most likely score 2-0 (37%)
Thursday's Cincinnati quarterfinal pits Amanda Anisimova against Jessica Pegula on hard. Jessica Pegula brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 8-2 across the last ten. Amanda Anisimova has won 3 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall.
Jessica Pegula simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Anisimova comes in off a compressed schedule; Pegula comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Pegula fractionally more likely to land the big points.
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