Cincinnati predictions, August 20, 2026: Rybakina vs. Swiatek, Anisimova vs. Pegula

Thursday's Cincinnati quarterfinal pits Elena Rybakina against Iga Swiatek on hard. Elena Rybakina has won 4 in a row and 8 of the last 10 overall. Iga Swiatek has won 9 in a row and 9 of the last 10 overall.

Hold strength tells the story — 70% versus 63.9% on first-serve points in Rybakina's favor. Little separates them; Rybakina gets the nod on the finest of margins.

Thursday's Cincinnati quarterfinal pits Amanda Anisimova against Jessica Pegula on hard. Jessica Pegula brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 8-2 across the last ten. Amanda Anisimova has won 3 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall.

Jessica Pegula simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Anisimova comes in off a compressed schedule; Pegula comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Pegula fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Felix Auger Aliassime and Frances Tiafoe meet in the round of 16 at Cincinnati on Thursday. Felix Auger Aliassime is 7-3 across recent matches. Frances Tiafoe has won 8 of the last 10.

The serve is where this match separates: Aliassime has been winning 75.5% of first-serve points to Tiafoe's 72.4%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. The edge belongs to Aliassime — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Aryna Sabalenka goes up against Sara Bejlek in the Cincinnati round of 16. Aryna Sabalenka is 7-3 across recent matches. Sara Bejlek is rolling — 3 straight wins, 7 of 10 in recent play.

Hold strength tells the story — 67% versus 57.7% on first-serve points in Sabalenka's favor. Bejlek needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.

Flavio Cobolli and Tommy Paul meet in the quarterfinal at Cincinnati on Thursday. Tommy Paul is rolling — 3 straight wins, 6 of 10 in recent play. Flavio Cobolli has won 3 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall.

The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Paul comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Paul is exactly that — a lean.

Jaime Faria and Lorenzo Musetti meet in the round of 16 at Cincinnati on Thursday. Lorenzo Musetti has won 7 of the last 10. Jaime Faria brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 6-4 across the last ten.

Lorenzo Musetti is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Musetti around 69%. Faria comes in off a compressed schedule. The edge belongs to Musetti — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

Christopher Oconnell and Taylor Fritz meet in the round of 16 at Cincinnati on Thursday. Taylor Fritz has won 8 of the last 10. Christopher Oconnell has won 6 of the last 10.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. If Fritz plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.