5 matches are on Wednesday's card at Monterrey, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Anastasia Potapova against Nikola Bartunkova in the round of 16. Our calls: Bartunkova over Potapova, Parry over Oliynykova, Li over Timofeeva, Bucsa over Vidmanova, Mertens over Udvardy.
The boldest call on the card: Bucsa over Vidmanova — the market disagrees with us there.
Pick: Bartunkova
Win probability: 53% Bartunkova · Market: -179 · Sets: 3 (42%) · most likely score 2-0 (31%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Anastasia Potapova goes up against Nikola Bartunkova in the Monterrey round of 16. Nikola Bartunkova comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Anastasia Potapova limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10.
Bartunkova's 67.9% behind the first serve (against 63.8% for Potapova) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Little separates them; Bartunkova gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Parry
Win probability: 51% Parry · Market: -214 · Sets: 3 (42%) · most likely score 2-0 (29%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Diane Parry goes up against Oleksandra Oliynykova in the Monterrey round of 16. Diane Parry is 5-5 across recent matches. Oleksandra Oliynykova comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.
Parry's 65.9% behind the first serve (against 57.6% for Oliynykova) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Parry comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Parry gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Li
Win probability: 62% Li · Market: -173 · Sets: 2 (61%) · most likely score 2-0 (39%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Ann Li goes up against Maria Timofeeva in the Monterrey round of 16. Ann Li is 4-6 across recent matches. Maria Timofeeva is 8-2 across recent matches.
The ledger favors Ann Li, 2-0 across their 2 meetings with Maria Timofeeva. On hard specifically it reads 1-0 Li — worth more than the overall number this week.
Hold strength tells the story — 65.2% versus 59.5% on first-serve points in Li's favor. Timofeeva comes in off a compressed schedule. The edge belongs to Li — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: BucsaUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Vidmanova the favorite; our numbers say Bucsa.
Win probability: 58% Bucsa · Market: +130 · Sets: 2 (62%) · most likely score 2-0 (37%)
Wednesday's Monterrey round of 16 pits Cristina Bucsa against Darja Vidmanova on hard. Cristina Bucsa is 2-8 across recent matches. Darja Vidmanova comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
Cristina Bucsa is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Bucsa around 58%. Bucsa comes in off a compressed schedule; Vidmanova comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Bucsa gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Mertens
Win probability: 71% Mertens · Market: -342 · Sets: 2 (66%) · most likely score 2-0 (50%)
Wednesday's Monterrey round of 16 pits Elise Mertens against Panna Udvardy on hard. Elise Mertens limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 6 wins in 10. Panna Udvardy has dropped 3 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Udvardy comes in off a compressed schedule. Mertens should have enough here, though Udvardy has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
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