✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 62% on Arthur Rinderknech, who won 6-7 6-2 7-6 6-2.
Pick: Rinderknech
Win probability: 62% Rinderknech · Market: -246 · Sets: 4+ (59%) · most likely score 3-0 (27%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Arthur Rinderknech goes up against Sho Shimabukuro in the US Open first round. Arthur Rinderknech limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10. Sho Shimabukuro is searching for form, having lost 6 in a row (3 of the last 10).
Rinderknech's 74.8% behind the first serve (against 70.5% for Shimabukuro) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. The edge belongs to Rinderknech — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Jiri Lehecka was our 62% pick, and won 6-1 7-6 4-6 6-2.
Pick: Lehecka
Win probability: 62% Lehecka · Market: -336 · Sets: 4+ (56%) · most likely score 3-0 (29%)
Sunday's US Open first round pits Jiri Lehecka against Pablo Carreno Busta on hard. Jiri Lehecka comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Pablo Carreno Busta is 4-6 across recent matches.
Lehecka's 72.7% behind the first serve (against 68.2% for Busta) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Lehecka should have enough here, though Busta has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 57% on Daniel Merida Aguilar, who won 6-4 6-4 6-2.
Pick: Aguilar
Win probability: 57% Aguilar · Market: -356 · Sets: 4+ (67%) · most likely score 3-1 (22%)
Sunday's US Open first round pits Daniel Merida Aguilar against Marton Fucsovics on hard. Daniel Merida Aguilar comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Marton Fucsovics is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (2 of the last 10).
Daniel Merida Aguilar is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Aguilar around 57%. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Aguilar fractionally more likely to land the big points.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Dino Prizmic at 54% before the match, and Dino Prizmic won 2-6 6-3 6-3 5-7 7-5.
Pick: Prizmic
Win probability: 54% Prizmic · Market: -243 · Sets: 4+ (68%) · most likely score 3-1 (21%)
Alexander Shevchenko and Dino Prizmic meet in the first round at US Open on Sunday. Dino Prizmic is 6-4 across recent matches. Alexander Shevchenko limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Prizmic is exactly that — a lean.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 51% on Kamil Majchrzak, who won 6-3 6-3 6-3.
Pick: Majchrzak
Win probability: 51% Majchrzak · Market: -111 · Sets: 4+ (71%) · most likely score 3-1 (20%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Hamad Medjedovic goes up against Kamil Majchrzak in the US Open first round. Kamil Majchrzak is searching for form, having lost 4 in a row (4 of the last 10). Hamad Medjedovic has dropped 4 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Majchrzak fractionally more likely to land the big points.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Yibing Wu was our 50% pick, and won 7-6 6-2 7-5.
Pick: Wu
Win probability: 50% Wu · Market: +102 · Sets: 4+ (72%) · most likely score 3-1 (20%)
Sunday's US Open first round pits Adam Walton against Yibing Wu on hard. Yibing Wu limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10. Adam Walton has won 4 of the last 10.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Wu fractionally more likely to land the big points.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Tommy Paul was our 63% pick, and won 6-7 6-1 6-3 6-3.
Pick: Paul
Win probability: 63% Paul · Market: -475 · Sets: 4+ (50%) · most likely score 3-0 (33%)
Coleman Wong and Tommy Paul meet in the first round at US Open on Sunday. Tommy Paul comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Coleman Wong limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10.
Tommy Paul is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Paul around 63%. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Paul.
✗ Pick wrongA miss: Cameron Norrie at 55% lost to Luca Van Assche (6-7 6-2 6-2 6-3).
Pick: Norrie
Win probability: 55% Norrie · Market: -191 · Sets: 4+ (70%) · most likely score 3-1 (21%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Cameron Norrie goes up against Luca Van Assche in the US Open first round. Cameron Norrie comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Luca Van Assche limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 6 wins in 10.
Cameron Norrie simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Norrie fractionally more likely to land the big points.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 53% on Toby Samuel, who won 6-2 6-3 6-2.
Pick: Samuel
Win probability: 53% Samuel · Market: -133 · Sets: 4+ (67%) · most likely score 3-1 (19%)
Toby Samuel and Tomas Machac meet in the first round at US Open on Sunday. Toby Samuel is 7-3 across recent matches. Tomas Machac has dropped 3 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Samuel gets the nod on the finest of margins.
✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Terence Atmane at 51%, but Jaume Munar won 6-7 3-6 6-1 7-6 7-5.
Pick: Atmane
Win probability: 51% Atmane · Market: -164 · Sets: 4+ (70%) · most likely score 3-1 (19%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Jaume Munar goes up against Terence Atmane in the US Open first round. Terence Atmane comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. Jaume Munar is 5-5 across recent matches.
The serve is where this match separates: Atmane has been winning 72.9% of first-serve points to Munar's 68.4%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Atmane fractionally more likely to land the big points.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Daniil Medvedev at 64% before the match, and Daniil Medvedev won 6-4 6-2 6-4.
Pick: Medvedev
Win probability: 64% Medvedev · Market: -567 · Sets: 3 (50%) · most likely score 3-0 (35%)
Sunday's US Open first round pits Daniil Medvedev against Hugo Gaston on hard. Daniil Medvedev has dropped 2 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten. Hugo Gaston comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
Hold strength tells the story — 72.8% versus 65.8% on first-serve points in Medvedev's favor. Medvedev should have enough here, though Gaston has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Jenson Brooksby at 51%, but Jaime Faria won 6-3 7-6 4-6 1-6 6-2.
Pick: Brooksby
Win probability: 51% Brooksby · Market: -116 · Sets: 4+ (69%) · most likely score 3-1 (20%)
Sunday's US Open first round pits Jaime Faria against Jenson Brooksby on hard. Jenson Brooksby is 5-5 across recent matches. Jaime Faria comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Little separates them; Brooksby gets the nod on the finest of margins.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Denis Shapovalov at 55% before the match, and Denis Shapovalov won 6-4 4-6 6-4 6-1.
Pick: Shapovalov
Win probability: 55% Shapovalov · Market: -123 · Sets: 4+ (67%) · most likely score 3-0 (22%)
Denis Shapovalov and Miomir Kecmanovic meet in the first round at US Open on Sunday. Denis Shapovalov has won 6 of the last 10. Miomir Kecmanovic comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
Shapovalov's 74.7% behind the first serve (against 70.9% for Kecmanovic) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Shapovalov is exactly that — a lean.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 56% on Tomas Martin Etcheverry, who won 6-3 6-4 6-0.
Pick: Etcheverry
Win probability: 56% Etcheverry · Market: -160 · Sets: 4+ (66%) · most likely score 3-0 (21%)
Tomas Martin Etcheverry and Vit Kopriva meet in the first round at US Open on Sunday. Tomas Martin Etcheverry has dropped 4 straight and sits at 2-8 over the last ten. Vit Kopriva comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.
The serve is where this match separates: Etcheverry has been winning 71.2% of first-serve points to Kopriva's 66.5%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Etcheverry fractionally more likely to land the big points.
✗ Pick wrongA miss: Novak Djokovic at 71% lost to Mariano Navone (7-6(5) 5-7 4-6 6-2 6-1).
Pick: Djokovic
Win probability: 71% Djokovic · Market: -421 · Sets: 3 (57%) · most likely score 3-0 (43%)
Sunday's US Open first round pits Mariano Navone against Novak Djokovic on hard. Novak Djokovic limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 7 wins in 10. Mariano Navone has dropped 2 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten.
Djokovic's 70.7% behind the first serve (against 62.4% for Navone) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Djokovic should have enough here, though Navone has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.