US Open predictions, August 30, 2026: Samuel vs. Machac, Navone vs. Djokovic

Toby Samuel and Tomas Machac meet in the first round at US Open on Sunday. Toby Samuel is 7-3 across recent matches. Tomas Machac has dropped 3 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Samuel gets the nod on the finest of margins.

Sunday's US Open first round pits Mariano Navone against Novak Djokovic on hard. Novak Djokovic limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 7 wins in 10. Mariano Navone has dropped 2 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten.

Djokovic's 70.7% behind the first serve (against 62.4% for Navone) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Djokovic should have enough here, though Navone has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Jaume Munar goes up against Terence Atmane in the US Open first round. Terence Atmane comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. Jaume Munar is 5-5 across recent matches.

The serve is where this match separates: Atmane has been winning 72.9% of first-serve points to Munar's 68.4%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Atmane fractionally more likely to land the big points.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Cameron Norrie goes up against Luca Van Assche in the US Open first round. Cameron Norrie comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Luca Van Assche limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 6 wins in 10.

Cameron Norrie simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Norrie fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Sunday's US Open first round pits Daniil Medvedev against Hugo Gaston on hard. Daniil Medvedev has dropped 2 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten. Hugo Gaston comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.

Hold strength tells the story — 72.8% versus 65.8% on first-serve points in Medvedev's favor. Medvedev should have enough here, though Gaston has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

Denis Shapovalov and Miomir Kecmanovic meet in the first round at US Open on Sunday. Denis Shapovalov has won 6 of the last 10. Miomir Kecmanovic comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.

Shapovalov's 74.7% behind the first serve (against 70.9% for Kecmanovic) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Shapovalov is exactly that — a lean.

Sunday's US Open first round pits Jiri Lehecka against Pablo Carreno Busta on hard. Jiri Lehecka comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Pablo Carreno Busta is 4-6 across recent matches.

Lehecka's 72.7% behind the first serve (against 68.2% for Busta) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Lehecka should have enough here, though Busta has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

Coleman Wong and Tommy Paul meet in the first round at US Open on Sunday. Tommy Paul comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Coleman Wong limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10.

Tommy Paul is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Paul around 63%. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Paul.

Sunday's US Open first round pits Daniel Merida Aguilar against Marton Fucsovics on hard. Daniel Merida Aguilar comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Marton Fucsovics is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (2 of the last 10).

Daniel Merida Aguilar is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Aguilar around 57%. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Aguilar fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Sunday's US Open first round pits Adam Walton against Yibing Wu on hard. Yibing Wu limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10. Adam Walton has won 4 of the last 10.

The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Wu fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Ekaterina Alexandrova and Mccartney Kessler meet in the first round at US Open on Sunday. Ekaterina Alexandrova has dropped 2 straight and sits at 6-4 over the last ten. Mccartney Kessler is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (4 of the last 10).

Alexandrova's 67.1% behind the first serve (against 61.9% for Kessler) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Alexandrova is exactly that — a lean.

Sunday's US Open first round pits Jaime Faria against Jenson Brooksby on hard. Jenson Brooksby is 5-5 across recent matches. Jaime Faria comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.

The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Little separates them; Brooksby gets the nod on the finest of margins.

Elena Gabriela Ruse and Jessica Pegula meet in the first round at US Open on Sunday. Jessica Pegula has won 7 of the last 10. Elena Gabriela Ruse comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.

Jessica Pegula is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Pegula around 71%. The edge belongs to Pegula — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Hamad Medjedovic goes up against Kamil Majchrzak in the US Open first round. Kamil Majchrzak is searching for form, having lost 4 in a row (4 of the last 10). Hamad Medjedovic has dropped 4 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten.

On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Majchrzak fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Alexander Shevchenko and Dino Prizmic meet in the first round at US Open on Sunday. Dino Prizmic is 6-4 across recent matches. Alexander Shevchenko limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10.

On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Prizmic is exactly that — a lean.

Alycia Parks and Taylah Preston meet in the first round at US Open on Sunday. Taylah Preston has won 6 of the last 10. Alycia Parks comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Preston fractionally more likely to land the big points.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Donna Vekic goes up against Talia Gibson in the US Open first round. Donna Vekic limps in on a 5-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10. Talia Gibson has dropped 2 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten.

The serve is where this match separates: Vekic has been winning 68.7% of first-serve points to Gibson's 63.8%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Little separates them; Vekic gets the nod on the finest of margins.

Hanne Vandewinkel and Karolina Pliskova meet in the first round at US Open on Sunday. Karolina Pliskova has dropped 2 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten. Hanne Vandewinkel has dropped 3 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten.

The serve is where this match separates: Pliskova has been winning 68.5% of first-serve points to Vandewinkel's 65%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Pliskova fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Tomas Martin Etcheverry and Vit Kopriva meet in the first round at US Open on Sunday. Tomas Martin Etcheverry has dropped 4 straight and sits at 2-8 over the last ten. Vit Kopriva comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.

The serve is where this match separates: Etcheverry has been winning 71.2% of first-serve points to Kopriva's 66.5%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Etcheverry fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Sunday's US Open first round pits Marta Kostyuk against Storm Hunter on hard. Marta Kostyuk comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Storm Hunter is 6-4 across recent matches.

Hold strength tells the story — 63.5% versus 59.4% on first-serve points in Kostyuk's favor. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Kostyuk.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Leylah Fernandez goes up against Shuai Zhang in the US Open first round. Leylah Fernandez has dropped 2 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten. Shuai Zhang is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (3 of the last 10).

Hold strength tells the story — 64.8% versus 59.7% on first-serve points in Fernandez's favor. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Fernandez fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Elina Svitolina and Solana Sierra meet in the first round at US Open on Sunday. Elina Svitolina comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Solana Sierra has dropped 2 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten.

Elina Svitolina is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Svitolina around 70%. Svitolina should have enough here, though Sierra has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

Barbora Krejcikova and Kamilla Rakhimova meet in the first round at US Open on Sunday. Barbora Krejcikova is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (6 of the last 10). Kamilla Rakhimova is 5-5 across recent matches.

The serve is where this match separates: Krejcikova has been winning 65.9% of first-serve points to Rakhimova's 62.4%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Krejcikova.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Arthur Rinderknech goes up against Sho Shimabukuro in the US Open first round. Arthur Rinderknech limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10. Sho Shimabukuro is searching for form, having lost 6 in a row (3 of the last 10).

Rinderknech's 74.8% behind the first serve (against 70.5% for Shimabukuro) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. The edge belongs to Rinderknech — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Elvina Kalieva goes up against Lanlana Tararudee in the US Open first round. Lanlana Tararudee is 7-3 across recent matches. Elvina Kalieva has dropped 3 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten.

The serve is where this match separates: Tararudee has been winning 66.7% of first-serve points to Kalieva's 63.7%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. The edge belongs to Tararudee — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Jasmine Paolini goes up against Veronika Erjavec in the US Open first round. Jasmine Paolini is 6-4 across recent matches. Veronika Erjavec has dropped 5 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten.

Jasmine Paolini simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Paolini should have enough here, though Erjavec has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

Dayana Yastremska and Lucrezia Stefanini meet in the first round at US Open on Sunday. Dayana Yastremska limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10. Lucrezia Stefanini has dropped 3 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten.

Hold strength tells the story — 62.3% versus 54.9% on first-serve points in Yastremska's favor. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Yastremska.