5 matches are on Monday's card at US Open, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Elena Rybakina against Naomi Osaka in the round of 16. Our calls: Rybakina over Osaka, Swiatek over Zheng, Gauff over Jovic, Kalinskaya over Navarro, Andreeva over Potapova.
Pick: Kalinskaya
Win probability: 61% Kalinskaya · Market: +102 · Sets: 2 (64%) · most likely score 2-0 (39%)
Anna Kalinskaya and Emma Navarro meet in the round of 16 at US Open on Monday. Anna Kalinskaya brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 7-3 across the last ten. Emma Navarro has won 3 in a row and 6 of the last 10 overall.
Anna Kalinskaya is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Kalinskaya around 61%. Kalinskaya should have enough here, though Navarro has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Gauff
Win probability: 72% Gauff · Market: -246 · Sets: 2 (69%) · most likely score 2-0 (51%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Coco Gauff goes up against Iva Jovic in the US Open round of 16. Coco Gauff is rolling — 9 straight wins, 9 of 10 in recent play. Iva Jovic comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.
The serve is where this match separates: Gauff has been winning 65.8% of first-serve points to Jovic's 62.7%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Gauff should have enough here, though Jovic has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Andreeva
Win probability: 70% Andreeva · Market: -495 · Sets: 2 (66%) · most likely score 2-0 (49%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Anastasia Potapova goes up against Mirra Andreeva in the US Open round of 16. Mirra Andreeva has won 3 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall. Anastasia Potapova has won 3 in a row and 6 of the last 10 overall.
Mirra Andreeva simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Andreeva.
Pick: Rybakina
Win probability: 69% Rybakina · Market: -124 · Sets: 2 (67%) · most likely score 2-0 (48%)
Elena Rybakina and Naomi Osaka meet in the round of 16 at US Open on Monday. Elena Rybakina brings a 6-match winning streak into this one, 9-1 across the last ten. Naomi Osaka is 7-3 across recent matches.
Elena Rybakina simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Rybakina should have enough here, though Osaka has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Swiatek
Win probability: 66% Swiatek · Market: -325 · Sets: 2 (68%) · most likely score 2-0 (47%)
Monday's US Open round of 16 pits Iga Swiatek against Qinwen Zheng on hard. Iga Swiatek has won 3 in a row and 9 of the last 10 overall. Qinwen Zheng brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 5-5 across the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Swiatek should have enough here, though Zheng has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
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