4 matches are on Wednesday's card at Cassis, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Daniel Rincon against Ugo Blanchet in the round of 16. Our calls: Blanchet over Rincon, Droguet over Brouwer, Rodionov over Masur, Glinka over Erhard.
Pick: Glinka
Win probability: 61% Glinka · Market: -132 · Sets: 3 (43%) · most likely score 2-0 (35%)
Daniil Glinka and Mathys Erhard meet in the round of 16 at Cassis on Wednesday. Daniil Glinka has won 7 of the last 10. Mathys Erhard limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10.
Daniil Glinka simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Erhard comes in off a compressed schedule. The edge belongs to Glinka — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Blanchet
Win probability: 50% Blanchet · Market: -110 · Sets: 3 (52%) · most likely score 2-1 (27%)
Daniel Rincon and Ugo Blanchet meet in the round of 16 at Cassis on Wednesday. Ugo Blanchet is searching for form, having lost 5 in a row (2 of the last 10). Daniel Rincon comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
Hold strength tells the story — 71.9% versus 68.4% on first-serve points in Blanchet's favor. Rincon comes in off a compressed schedule; Blanchet comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Blanchet gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Rodionov
Win probability: 70% Rodionov · Market: -323 · Sets: 3 (49%) · most likely score 2-0 (37%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Daniel Masur goes up against Jurij Rodionov in the Cassis round of 16. Jurij Rodionov is 4-6 across recent matches. Daniel Masur comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.
Jurij Rodionov is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Rodionov around 70%. Masur comes in off a compressed schedule; Rodionov comes in off a compressed schedule. Rodionov should have enough here, though Masur has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Droguet
Win probability: 68% Droguet · Market: -552 · Sets: 3 (43%) · most likely score 2-0 (40%)
Gijs Brouwer and Titouan Droguet meet in the round of 16 at Cassis on Wednesday. Titouan Droguet has won 6 of the last 10. Gijs Brouwer is 5-5 across recent matches.
Titouan Droguet simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Droguet should have enough here, though Brouwer has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Sign up for the daily desk email and our nine-chapter beginner's guide to trading sports prediction markets comes free as a PDF. One email a day with the day's free picks in full, unsubscribe anytime.