4 matches are on Saturday's card at Chengdu, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Lloyd Harris against Valentin Vacherot in the round of 16. Our calls: Vacherot over Harris, Fokina over Cerundolo, Hurkacz over Damm, Muller over Cina.
Pick: Hurkacz
Win probability: 66% Hurkacz · Market: -224 · We call it in 3 sets (42%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (40%)
Saturday's Chengdu round of 16 pits Hubert Hurkacz against Martin Damm on hard. Hubert Hurkacz comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Martin Damm comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
Hubert Hurkacz is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Hurkacz around 66%. The edge belongs to Hurkacz — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Vacherot
Win probability: 65% Vacherot · Market: -107 · We call it in 3 sets (43%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (38%)
Saturday's Chengdu round of 16 pits Lloyd Harris against Valentin Vacherot on hard. Valentin Vacherot has won 5 of the last 10. Lloyd Harris has won 6 of the last 10.
Valentin Vacherot simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Vacherot should have enough here, though Harris has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Fokina
Win probability: 61% Fokina · Market: -144 · We call it in 2 sets (59%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (36%)
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Juan Manuel Cerundolo meet in the round of 16 at Chengdu on Saturday. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has won 8 of the last 10. Juan Manuel Cerundolo comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Fokina around 61%. Fokina should have enough here, though Cerundolo has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Muller
Win probability: 52% Muller · Market: -106 · We call it in 3 sets (45%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (29%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Saturday, when Alexandre Muller goes up against Federico Cina in the Chengdu round of 16. Alexandre Muller is 4-6 across recent matches. Federico Cina is 2-8 across recent matches.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Muller fractionally more likely to land the big points.
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