6 matches are on Wednesday's card at Curitiba, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva against Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida in the round of 16. Our calls: Almeida over Silva, Heide over Alves, Guido over Roncadelli, Angelo over Villanueva, Vera over Juan, Ribeiro over Sakamoto.
Pick: Angelo
Win probability: 61% Angelo · Market: -217 · We call it in 3 sets (48%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (32%)
Gonzalo Villanueva and Juan Carlos Prado Angelo meet in the round of 32 at Curitiba on Wednesday. Juan Carlos Prado Angelo is 6-4 across recent matches. Gonzalo Villanueva limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10.
Juan Carlos Prado Angelo simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Angelo.
Pick: Ribeiro
Win probability: 58% Ribeiro · Market: -161 · We call it in 3 sets (42%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (34%)
Wednesday's Curitiba round of 32 pits Eduardo Ribeiro against Pedro Sakamoto on clay. Eduardo Ribeiro comes in at 3 wins from the last ten. Pedro Sakamoto limps in on a 5-match losing skid, just 2 wins in 10.
Eduardo Ribeiro is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Ribeiro around 58%. Little separates them; Ribeiro gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Guido
Win probability: 53% Guido · We call it in 3 sets (48%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (28%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Franco Roncadelli goes up against Ivan Justo Guido in the Curitiba round of 32. Ivan Justo Guido comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Franco Roncadelli has won 6 of the last 10.
Guido's 63% behind the first serve (against 59.1% for Roncadelli) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Guido is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Vera
Win probability: 63% Vera · We call it in 3 sets (49%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (34%)
Wednesday's Curitiba round of 16 pits Bautista Torres Juan against Tomas Barrios Vera on clay. Tomas Barrios Vera is 2-8 across recent matches. Bautista Torres Juan is 5-5 across recent matches.
Hold strength tells the story — 64.9% versus 60.7% on first-serve points in Vera's favor. Juan comes in off a compressed schedule; Vera comes in off a compressed schedule. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Vera.
Pick: Heide
Win probability: 70% Heide · Market: -244 · We call it in 3 sets (42%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (42%)
Wednesday's Curitiba round of 16 pits Felipe Meligeni Alves against Gustavo Heide on clay. Gustavo Heide is 7-3 across recent matches. Felipe Meligeni Alves is 5-5 across recent matches.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. Alves comes in off a compressed schedule; Heide comes in off a compressed schedule. Heide should have enough here, though Alves has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Almeida
Win probability: 53% Almeida · Market: -160 · We call it in 3 sets (53%) · single likeliest score 2-1 (28%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva goes up against Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida in the Curitiba round of 16. Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida is 5-5 across recent matches. Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Almeida around 53%. Silva comes in off a compressed schedule; Almeida comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Almeida fractionally more likely to land the big points.
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