4 matches are on Thursday's card at Jingshan, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Adam Walton against Mattia Bellucci in the round of 16. Our calls: Bellucci over Walton, Harris over Pavlovic, Sharipov over Ilagan, Sweeny over Biryukov.
Pick: Harris
Win probability: 62% Harris · Market: -353 · We call it in 3 sets (43%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (36%)
Lloyd Harris and Luka Pavlovic meet in the round of 16 at Jingshan on Thursday. Lloyd Harris comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Luka Pavlovic has won 7 of the last 10.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Harris comes in off a compressed schedule. The edge belongs to Harris — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Sweeny
Win probability: 57% Sweeny · Market: -204 · We call it in 3 sets (45%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (32%)
Dane Sweeny and Petr Bar Biryukov meet in the round of 16 at Jingshan on Thursday. Dane Sweeny has dropped 2 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten. Petr Bar Biryukov comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Sweeny comes in off a compressed schedule; Biryukov comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Sweeny fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Bellucci
Win probability: 51% Bellucci · Market: -106 · We call it in 3 sets (45%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (28%)
Thursday's Jingshan round of 16 pits Adam Walton against Mattia Bellucci on hard. Mattia Bellucci has dropped 2 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten. Adam Walton limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Walton comes in off a compressed schedule; Bellucci comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Bellucci gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Sharipov
Win probability: 68% Sharipov · Market: -225 · We call it in 3 sets (48%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (36%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Andre Ilagan goes up against Marat Sharipov in the Jingshan round of 16. Marat Sharipov is rolling — 5 straight wins, 9 of 10 in recent play. Andre Ilagan has won 5 of the last 10.
The serve is where this match separates: Sharipov has been winning 76.8% of first-serve points to Ilagan's 64.2%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Sharipov comes in off a compressed schedule. The edge belongs to Sharipov — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
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