7 matches are on Thursday's card at Porto, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Jerome Kym against Toby Samuel in the round of 16. Our calls: Samuel over Kym, Fearnley over Torre, Guerrieri over Holmgren, Butvilas over Echargui, Djere over Rincon, Grenier over Pereira, and 1 more.
Pick: Samuel
Win probability: 64% Samuel · Market: -184 · We call it in 3 sets (43%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (38%)
Thursday's Porto round of 16 pits Jerome Kym against Toby Samuel on hard. Toby Samuel comes in at 8 wins from the last ten. Jerome Kym has won 6 of the last 10.
Toby Samuel is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Samuel around 64%. The edge belongs to Samuel — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Fearnley
Win probability: 67% Fearnley · We call it in 3 sets (42%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (40%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Inaki Montes-De La Torre goes up against Jacob Fearnley in the Porto round of 16. Jacob Fearnley has won 7 of the last 10. Inaki Montes-De La Torre comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
Hold strength tells the story — 71.8% versus 64.1% on first-serve points in Fearnley's favor. Torre comes in off a compressed schedule; Fearnley comes in off a compressed schedule. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Fearnley.
Pick: Butvilas
Win probability: 62% Butvilas · Market: -197 · We call it in 3 sets (50%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (32%)
Edas Butvilas and Moez Echargui meet in the round of 16 at Porto on Thursday. Edas Butvilas has won 6 of the last 10. Moez Echargui comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
Edas Butvilas simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Butvilas comes in off a compressed schedule; Echargui comes in off a compressed schedule. The edge belongs to Butvilas — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Rocha
Win probability: 67% Rocha · Market: -290 · We call it in 3 sets (49%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (35%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Henrique Rocha goes up against Mili Poljicak in the Porto round of 16. Henrique Rocha is 4-6 across recent matches. Mili Poljicak is 5-5 across recent matches.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Rocha.
Pick: Guerrieri
Win probability: 55% Guerrieri · Market: -139 · We call it in 3 sets (46%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (30%)
Andrea Guerrieri and August Holmgren meet in the round of 16 at Porto on Thursday. Andrea Guerrieri comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. August Holmgren comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Guerrieri is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Grenier
Win probability: 59% Grenier · Market: -131 · We call it in 3 sets (46%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (32%)
Thursday's Porto round of 16 pits Hugo Grenier against T. Pereira on hard. Hugo Grenier comes in at 3 wins from the last ten. T. Pereira is 4-6 across recent matches.
Grenier's 71.2% behind the first serve (against 65.8% for Pereira) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Grenier comes in off a compressed schedule; Pereira comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Grenier fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Djere
Win probability: 56% Djere · Market: -125 · We call it in 3 sets (43%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (33%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Daniel Rincon goes up against Laslo Djere in the Porto round of 16. Laslo Djere comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Daniel Rincon has won 3 of the last 10.
This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.
Djere's 72.3% behind the first serve (against 68.4% for Rincon) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Rincon comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Djere is exactly that — a lean.
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