4 matches are on Saturday's card at Tokyo, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Jiri Lehecka against Ugo Humbert in the round of 16. Our calls: Lehecka over Humbert, Shapovalov over Tabilo, Alcaraz over Arnaldi, Berrettini over Vallejo.
Pick: Alcaraz
Win probability: 87% Alcaraz · Market: -896 · We call it in 2 sets (71%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (63%)
Carlos Alcaraz and Matteo Arnaldi meet in the round of 16 at Tokyo on Saturday. Carlos Alcaraz has won 8 of the last 10. Matteo Arnaldi comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. If Alcaraz plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
Pick: Berrettini
Win probability: 70% Berrettini · Market: -154 · We call it in 2 sets (60%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (43%)
Saturday's Tokyo round of 16 pits Daniel Vallejo against Matteo Berrettini on hard. Matteo Berrettini comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Daniel Vallejo comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
Berrettini's 76.2% behind the first serve (against 65.2% for Vallejo) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. The edge belongs to Berrettini — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Lehecka
Win probability: 62% Lehecka · Market: -148 · We call it in 2 sets (63%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (40%)
Saturday's Tokyo round of 16 pits Jiri Lehecka against Ugo Humbert on hard. Jiri Lehecka comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Ugo Humbert limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10.
Jiri Lehecka is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Lehecka around 62%. Lehecka comes in off a compressed schedule; Humbert comes in off a compressed schedule. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Lehecka.
Pick: Shapovalov
Win probability: 55% Shapovalov · Market: -131 · We call it in 2 sets (58%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (32%)
Alejandro Tabilo and Denis Shapovalov meet in the round of 16 at Tokyo on Saturday. Denis Shapovalov comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Alejandro Tabilo comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
Hold strength tells the story — 74.7% versus 71.3% on first-serve points in Shapovalov's favor. Little separates them; Shapovalov gets the nod on the finest of margins.
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