4 matches are on Tuesday's card at Shanghai, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Arthur Gea against Jakub Mensik in the round of 16. Our calls: Mensik over Gea, Hurkacz over Fokina, Minaur over Khachanov, Zverev over Bublik.
Pick: Minaur
Win probability: 61% Minaur · Market: -116 · We call it in 2 sets (62%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (38%)
Tuesday's Shanghai round of 16 pits Alex De Minaur against Karen Khachanov on hard. Alex De Minaur brings a 7-match winning streak into this one, 8-2 across the last ten. Karen Khachanov is 8-2 across recent matches.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Minaur — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Mensik
Win probability: 55% Mensik · Market: -156 · We call it in 3 sets (46%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (30%)
Tuesday's Shanghai round of 16 pits Arthur Gea against Jakub Mensik on hard. Jakub Mensik comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Arthur Gea has won 3 in a row and 8 of the last 10 overall.
The serve is where this match separates: Mensik has been winning 76.6% of first-serve points to Gea's 67.9%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Little separates them; Mensik gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Zverev
Win probability: 72% Zverev · Market: -240 · We call it in 2 sets (63%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (49%)
Alexander Bublik and Alexander Zverev meet in the round of 16 at Shanghai on Tuesday. Alexander Zverev has won 8 of the last 10. Alexander Bublik has won 6 of the last 10.
Alexander Zverev is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Zverev around 72%. Anything other than a Zverev win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
Pick: Hurkacz
Win probability: 54% Hurkacz · Market: -105 · We call it in 2 sets (58%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (32%)
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Hubert Hurkacz meet in the round of 16 at Shanghai on Tuesday. Hubert Hurkacz has won 6 in a row and 9 of the last 10 overall. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is 7-3 across recent matches.
The serve is where this match separates: Hurkacz has been winning 75.9% of first-serve points to Fokina's 67.3%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Little separates them; Hurkacz gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Sign up for the daily desk email and our nine-chapter beginner's guide to trading sports prediction markets comes free as a PDF. One email a day with the day's free picks in full, unsubscribe anytime.