8 matches are on Tuesday's card at Lyon (France), and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Brandon Nakashima against Hamad Medjedovic in the round of 32. Our calls: Nakashima over Medjedovic, Droguet over Altmaier, Norrie over Bonzi, Humbert over Moutet, Fery over Gojo, Baez over Herbert, and 2 more.
The boldest call on the card: Baez over Herbert — the market disagrees with us there.
Pick: Norrie
Win probability: 61% Norrie · Market: -112 · We call it in 3 sets (43%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (35%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Benjamin Bonzi goes up against Cameron Norrie in the Lyon (France) round of 32. Cameron Norrie limps in on a 4-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10. Benjamin Bonzi has won 6 of the last 10.
Cameron Norrie simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. Norrie should have enough here, though Bonzi has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Humbert
Win probability: 57% Humbert · Market: -236 · We call it in 2 sets (61%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (35%)
Corentin Moutet and Ugo Humbert meet in the round of 32 at Lyon (France) on Tuesday. Ugo Humbert is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (3 of the last 10). Corentin Moutet has won 2 of the last 10.
Humbert's 73.1% behind the first serve (against 65.3% for Moutet) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Humbert fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Droguet
Win probability: 57% Droguet · Market: -181 · We call it in 3 sets (44%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (32%)
Tuesday's Lyon (France) round of 32 pits Daniel Altmaier against Titouan Droguet on clay. Titouan Droguet brings a 5-match winning streak into this one, 9-1 across the last ten. Daniel Altmaier comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
Titouan Droguet is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Droguet around 57%. Little separates them; Droguet gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Nakashima
Win probability: 56% Nakashima · Market: -223 · We call it in 2 sets (61%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (35%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Brandon Nakashima goes up against Hamad Medjedovic in the Lyon (France) round of 32. Brandon Nakashima comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Hamad Medjedovic has won 3 of the last 10.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Nakashima fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Berrettini
Win probability: 70% Berrettini · Market: -129 · We call it in 2 sets (58%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (42%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Kyrian Jacquet goes up against Matteo Berrettini in the Lyon (France) round of 32. Matteo Berrettini is 4-6 across recent matches. Kyrian Jacquet has won 5 of the last 10.
The serve is where this match separates: Berrettini has been winning 76.2% of first-serve points to Jacquet's 69.9%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Berrettini.
Pick: Assche
Win probability: 69% Assche · Market: -154 · We call it in 3 sets (48%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (37%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Clement Tabur goes up against Luca Van Assche in the Lyon (France) round of 32. Luca Van Assche has dropped 3 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten. Clement Tabur is 4-6 across recent matches.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Assche.
Pick: BaezUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Herbert the favorite; our numbers say Baez.
Win probability: 60% Baez · Market: +136 · We call it in 2 sets (62%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (38%)
Tuesday's Lyon (France) round of 32 pits Pierre Hugues Herbert against Sebastian Baez on clay. Sebastian Baez is 5-5 across recent matches. Pierre Hugues Herbert is 2-8 across recent matches.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Baez — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Fery
Win probability: 57% Fery · Market: -160 · We call it in 3 sets (45%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (31%)
Tuesday's Lyon (France) round of 32 pits Arthur Fery against Borna Gojo on clay. Arthur Fery is 5-5 across recent matches. Borna Gojo comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Fery gets the nod on the finest of margins.
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