7 matches are on Tuesday's card at Osaka, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Katerina Siniakova against Peyton Stearns in the round of 32. Our calls: Siniakova over Stearns, Kartal over Birrell, Joint over Sonmez, Valentova over Zhang, Liu over Linette, Badosa over Ruzic, and 1 more.
Pick: Badosa
Win probability: 62% Badosa · Market: -247 · We call it in 2 sets (66%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (43%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Antonia Ruzic goes up against Paula Badosa in the Osaka round of 32. Paula Badosa is 6-4 across recent matches. Antonia Ruzic has won 2 of the last 10.
Badosa's 65% behind the first serve (against 61% for Ruzic) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Badosa should have enough here, though Ruzic has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Kartal
Win probability: 64% Kartal · Market: -192 · We call it in 2 sets (66%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (44%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Kimberly Birrell goes up against Sonay Kartal in the Osaka round of 32. Sonay Kartal is rolling — 5 straight wins, 8 of 10 in recent play. Kimberly Birrell limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 7 wins in 10.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Kartal should have enough here, though Birrell has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Valentova
Win probability: 58% Valentova · Market: -209 · We call it in 2 sets (66%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (39%)
Tuesday's Osaka round of 32 pits Shuai Zhang against Tereza Valentova on hard. Tereza Valentova comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Shuai Zhang comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
Valentova's 63.3% behind the first serve (against 59.7% for Zhang) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Little separates them; Valentova gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Siniakova
Win probability: 52% Siniakova · Market: -126 · We call it in 2 sets (60%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (32%)
Katerina Siniakova and Peyton Stearns meet in the round of 32 at Osaka on Tuesday. Katerina Siniakova is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (4 of the last 10). Peyton Stearns is 5-5 across recent matches.
Katerina Siniakova simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Siniakova is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Joint
Win probability: 52% Joint · Market: +108 · We call it in 2 sets (59%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (31%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Maya Joint goes up against Zeynep Sonmez in the Osaka round of 32. Maya Joint has dropped 2 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten. Zeynep Sonmez is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (3 of the last 10).
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Joint fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Liu
Win probability: 51% Liu · Market: -158 · We call it in 2 sets (59%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (30%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Claire Liu goes up against Magda Linette in the Osaka round of 32. Claire Liu is 6-4 across recent matches. Magda Linette is searching for form, having lost 5 in a row (2 of the last 10).
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Liu fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Birrell
Win probability: 64% Birrell · We call it in 2 sets (65%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (43%)
Tuesday's Osaka round of 32 pits Kayla Day against Kimberly Birrell on hard. Kimberly Birrell has dropped 2 straight and sits at 7-3 over the last ten. Kayla Day comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Birrell should have enough here, though Day has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
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