5 matches are on Thursday's card at Cali, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida against Nicolas Jarry in the round of 16. Our calls: Jarry over Almeida, Dedura over Alves, Soto over Aboian, Bueno over Taverna, Mejia over Tobon.
The boldest call on the card: Jarry over Almeida — the market disagrees with us there.
Pick: JarryUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Almeida the favorite; our numbers say Jarry.
Win probability: 55% Jarry · Market: +124 · We call it in 3 sets (44%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (30%)
Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida and Nicolas Jarry meet in the round of 16 at Cali on Thursday. Nicolas Jarry comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
The serve is where this match separates: Jarry has been winning 74.5% of first-serve points to Almeida's 64.7%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. Almeida comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Jarry gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Bueno
Win probability: 59% Bueno · Market: -181 · We call it in 3 sets (51%) · single likeliest score 2-1 (30%)
Gonzalo Bueno and Santiago Fa Rodriguez Taverna meet in the round of 16 at Cali on Thursday. Gonzalo Bueno is 6-4 across recent matches. Santiago Fa Rodriguez Taverna is 5-5 across recent matches.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. Taverna comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Bueno gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Dedura
Win probability: 53% Dedura · Market: +102 · We call it in 3 sets (47%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (29%)
Thursday's Cali round of 16 pits Diego Dedura against Felipe Meligeni Alves on clay. Diego Dedura comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. Felipe Meligeni Alves comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Little separates them; Dedura gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Soto
Win probability: 56% Soto · Market: +101 · We call it in 3 sets (50%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (28%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Matias Soto goes up against Valerio Aboian in the Cali round of 16. Matias Soto comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. Valerio Aboian has won 4 of the last 10.
Soto's 70% behind the first serve (against 64.1% for Aboian) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Aboian comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Soto gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Mejia
Win probability: 73% Mejia · Market: -215 · We call it in 3 sets (45%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (41%)
M. Tobon and Nicolas Mejia meet in the round of 16 at Cali on Thursday. Nicolas Mejia has won 5 of the last 10. M. Tobon comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
Hold strength tells the story — 69.1% versus 65.3% on first-serve points in Mejia's favor. If Mejia plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
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