3 matches are on Thursday's card at Lisbon, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Andrea Pellegrino against Francesco Passaro in the round of 16. Our calls: Passaro over Pellegrino, Nagal over Hassan, Ritschard over Brancaccio.
Pick: Ritschard
Win probability: 70% Ritschard · Market: -325 · We call it in 3 sets (45%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (40%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Alexander Ritschard goes up against Raul Brancaccio in the Lisbon round of 16. Alexander Ritschard comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Raul Brancaccio comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
Alexander Ritschard is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Ritschard around 70%. Ritschard should have enough here, though Brancaccio has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Nagal
Win probability: 54% Nagal · Market: -144 · We call it in 3 sets (49%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (28%)
Thursday's Lisbon round of 16 pits Benjamin Hassan against Sumit Nagal on clay. Sumit Nagal has won 3 of the last 10. Benjamin Hassan comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Little separates them; Nagal gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Passaro
Win probability: 53% Passaro · Market: -212 · We call it in 3 sets (52%) · single likeliest score 2-1 (27%)
Andrea Pellegrino and Francesco Passaro meet in the round of 16 at Lisbon on Thursday. Francesco Passaro is rolling — 6 straight wins, 7 of 10 in recent play. Andrea Pellegrino has dropped 3 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten.
Hold strength tells the story — 70.5% versus 65.6% on first-serve points in Passaro's favor. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Passaro fractionally more likely to land the big points.
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