7 matches are on Tuesday's card at Basel, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Alex Michelsen against Botic Van De Zandschulp in the round of 32. Our calls: Michelsen over Zandschulp, Rinderknech over Kym, Hurkacz over Bergs, Jodar over Tabilo, Lehecka over Wawrinka, Shelton over Kovacevic, and 1 more.
Pick: Shelton
Win probability: 78% Shelton · Market: -378 · We call it in 2 sets (64%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (51%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Aleksandar Kovacevic goes up against Ben Shelton in the Basel round of 32. Ben Shelton has won 6 of the last 10. Aleksandar Kovacevic is searching for form, having lost 5 in a row (4 of the last 10).
Ben Shelton is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Shelton around 78%. If Shelton plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
Pick: Fils
Win probability: 77% Fils · Market: -291 · We call it in 2 sets (68%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (54%)
Tuesday's Basel round of 32 pits Arthur Fils against Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard on hard. Arthur Fils is 6-4 across recent matches. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard is searching for form, having lost 7 in a row (2 of the last 10).
Arthur Fils simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Anything other than a Fils win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
Pick: Lehecka
Win probability: 76% Lehecka · Market: -433 · We call it in 2 sets (67%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (53%)
Tuesday's Basel round of 32 pits Jiri Lehecka against Stan Wawrinka on hard. Jiri Lehecka has won 7 of the last 10. Stan Wawrinka has dropped 3 straight and sits at 2-8 over the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. If Lehecka plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
Pick: Jodar
Win probability: 69% Jodar · Market: -259 · We call it in 2 sets (58%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (42%)
Alejandro Tabilo and Rafael Jodar meet in the round of 32 at Basel on Tuesday. Rafael Jodar comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Alejandro Tabilo is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (4 of the last 10).
Rafael Jodar simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Jodar — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Hurkacz
Win probability: 65% Hurkacz · Market: -161 · We call it in 2 sets (61%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (41%)
Tuesday's Basel round of 32 pits Hubert Hurkacz against Zizou Bergs on hard. Hubert Hurkacz is 8-2 across recent matches. Zizou Bergs has won 6 of the last 10.
Hold strength tells the story — 75.9% versus 72.5% on first-serve points in Hurkacz's favor. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Hurkacz.
Pick: Michelsen
Win probability: 57% Michelsen · Market: -162 · We call it in 2 sets (58%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (35%)
Alex Michelsen and Botic Van De Zandschulp meet in the round of 32 at Basel on Tuesday. Alex Michelsen comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Botic Van De Zandschulp has dropped 2 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Michelsen is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Rinderknech
Win probability: 50% Rinderknech · Market: +113 · We call it in 3 sets (45%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (27%)
Tuesday's Basel round of 32 pits Arthur Rinderknech against Jerome Kym on hard. Arthur Rinderknech limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10. Jerome Kym is 7-3 across recent matches.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Little separates them; Rinderknech gets the nod on the finest of margins.
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