6 matches are on Thursday's card at Basel, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Rafael Jodar against Valentin Vacherot in the round of 16. Our calls: Jodar over Vacherot, Fils over Michelsen, Fritz over Shapovalov, Shelton over Kym, Djokovic over Struff, Lehecka over Altmaier.
Pick: Lehecka
Win probability: 76% Lehecka · Market: -443 · We call it in 2 sets (64%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (51%)
Thursday's Basel round of 16 pits Daniel Altmaier against Jiri Lehecka on hard. Jiri Lehecka comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Daniel Altmaier comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
Jiri Lehecka simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Altmaier needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
Pick: Shelton
Win probability: 70% Shelton · Market: -280 · We call it in 2 sets (59%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (42%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Ben Shelton goes up against Jerome Kym in the Basel round of 16. Ben Shelton comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Jerome Kym has won 7 of the last 10.
Ben Shelton is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Shelton around 70%. The edge belongs to Shelton — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Fils
Win probability: 61% Fils · Market: -188 · We call it in 2 sets (63%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (40%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Alex Michelsen goes up against Arthur Fils in the Basel round of 16. Arthur Fils comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Alex Michelsen is 6-4 across recent matches.
Fils's 73.9% behind the first serve (against 69.8% for Michelsen) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. The edge belongs to Fils — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Jodar
Win probability: 57% Jodar · Market: -244 · We call it in 3 sets (47%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (30%)
Rafael Jodar and Valentin Vacherot meet in the round of 16 at Basel on Thursday. Rafael Jodar is 8-2 across recent matches. Valentin Vacherot is 7-3 across recent matches.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Little separates them; Jodar gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Djokovic
Win probability: 78% Djokovic · Market: -305 · We call it in 2 sets (68%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (56%)
Jan Lennard Struff and Novak Djokovic meet in the round of 16 at Basel on Thursday. Novak Djokovic has won 6 of the last 10. Jan Lennard Struff comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Djokovic comes in off a compressed schedule. If Djokovic plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
Pick: Fritz
Win probability: 62% Fritz · Market: -183 · We call it in 2 sets (60%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (40%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Denis Shapovalov goes up against Taylor Fritz in the Basel round of 16. Taylor Fritz is 5-5 across recent matches. Denis Shapovalov brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 8-2 across the last ten.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Shapovalov comes in off a compressed schedule; Fritz comes in off a compressed schedule. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Fritz.
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