6 matches are on Thursday's card at Vienna, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Flavio Cobolli against Matteo Berrettini in the round of 16. Our calls: Berrettini over Cobolli, Zverev over Griekspoor, Medvedev over Norrie, Alcaraz over Basilashvili, Paul over Darderi, Musetti over Fery.
Pick: Paul
Win probability: 68% Paul · Market: -306 · We call it in 2 sets (61%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (44%)
Luciano Darderi and Tommy Paul meet in the round of 16 at Vienna on Thursday. Tommy Paul is 7-3 across recent matches. Luciano Darderi comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
Tommy Paul is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Paul around 68%. Paul should have enough here, though Darderi has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Berrettini
Win probability: 53% Berrettini · Market: -100 · We call it in 2 sets (59%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (32%)
Flavio Cobolli and Matteo Berrettini meet in the round of 16 at Vienna on Thursday. Matteo Berrettini comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Flavio Cobolli comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
Hold strength tells the story — 76.2% versus 71% on first-serve points in Berrettini's favor. Little separates them; Berrettini gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Alcaraz
Win probability: 82% Alcaraz · Market: -677 · We call it in 2 sets (71%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (61%)
Carlos Alcaraz and Nikoloz Basilashvili meet in the round of 16 at Vienna on Thursday. Carlos Alcaraz is 8-2 across recent matches. Nikoloz Basilashvili has won 7 of the last 10.
Carlos Alcaraz simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Basilashvili comes in off a compressed schedule. Anything other than a Alcaraz win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
Pick: Zverev
Win probability: 76% Zverev · Market: -295 · We call it in 2 sets (63%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (51%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Alexander Zverev goes up against Tallon Griekspoor in the Vienna round of 16. Alexander Zverev has won 8 of the last 10. Tallon Griekspoor is rolling — 5 straight wins, 6 of 10 in recent play.
Alexander Zverev is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Zverev around 76%. If Zverev plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
Pick: Medvedev
Win probability: 72% Medvedev · Market: -371 · We call it in 2 sets (63%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (49%)
Thursday's Vienna round of 16 pits Cameron Norrie against Daniil Medvedev on hard. Daniil Medvedev brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 9-1 across the last ten. Cameron Norrie comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
The serve is where this match separates: Medvedev has been winning 72.8% of first-serve points to Norrie's 68.4%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Medvedev comes in off a compressed schedule. If Medvedev plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
Pick: Musetti
Win probability: 65% Musetti · Market: -255 · We call it in 2 sets (59%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (40%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Arthur Fery goes up against Lorenzo Musetti in the Vienna round of 16. Lorenzo Musetti has dropped 2 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten. Arthur Fery has won 5 of the last 10.
Lorenzo Musetti simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Musetti comes in off a compressed schedule. Musetti should have enough here, though Fery has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
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