3 matches are on Wednesday's card at Paris, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Alexander Zverev against Lorenzo Musetti in the round of 32. Our calls: Zverev over Musetti, Fils over Machac, Medvedev over Buse.
Pick: Fils
Win probability: 72% Fils · Market: -180 · We call it in 2 sets (66%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (50%)
Wednesday's Paris round of 32 pits Arthur Fils against Tomas Machac on clay. Arthur Fils comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Tomas Machac is 5-5 across recent matches.
Fils's 74% behind the first serve (against 68.6% for Machac) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Fils should have enough here, though Machac has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Medvedev
Win probability: 67% Medvedev · Market: -475 · We call it in 2 sets (60%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (42%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Daniil Medvedev goes up against Ignacio Buse in the Paris round of 32. Daniil Medvedev has won 8 of the last 10. Ignacio Buse has won 5 of the last 10.
The serve is where this match separates: Medvedev has been winning 72.8% of first-serve points to Buse's 68.2%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Medvedev.
Pick: Zverev
Win probability: 65% Zverev · Market: -213 · We call it in 2 sets (62%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (43%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Alexander Zverev goes up against Lorenzo Musetti in the Paris round of 32. Alexander Zverev comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Lorenzo Musetti comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
Zverev's 73.7% behind the first serve (against 69.3% for Musetti) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Zverev.
Sign up for the daily desk email and our nine-chapter beginner's guide to trading sports prediction markets comes free as a PDF. One email a day with the day's free picks in full, unsubscribe anytime.