Missouri State Bears at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers — result and pick review
Result
✓ Pick rightWestern Kentucky Hilltoppers 34, Missouri State Bears 13
Our pick landed: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers won 34-13. We had them at 60%.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers, 60% to win. We project them by 4.2.
The numbers
| Our pick | Western Kentucky Hilltoppers |
| Chance they win | 60% |
| Our projected spread (Western Kentucky Hilltoppers) | -4.2 |
| Our projected score (Western Kentucky Hilltoppers first) | 30-26 |
| Projected total | 56.1 |
The win probability is the graded call. The projected spread, score and total come from the same model, and they beat a naive baseline in every season we tested. A spread reads here as it does anywhere else: -11 means we project that side to win by eleven. These are our numbers, not a market’s — the market consensus is shown separately, and labelled, wherever we have it.
Market average
| Spread (Western Kentucky Hilltoppers) | +1 |
| Total | 56 |
The market’s numbers, not ours: an average across the books our data provider covers, for context beside the projections above. We don’t guarantee its accuracy or timeliness, and nothing here is a price you can transact at.
Other picks on the Week 6, 2026 board
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- New Mexico State Aggies at Florida International PanthersWed, Oct 7 · Florida International Panthers, 63% to win
- Florida State Seminoles at Louisville CardinalsFri, Oct 9 · Louisville Cardinals, 59% to win
- Wyoming Cowboys at San José State SpartansFri, Oct 9 · Our pick: on the game page
- Iowa Hawkeyes at Washington HuskiesFri, Oct 9 · Our pick: on the game page
- Iowa State Cyclones at BYU CougarsFri, Oct 9 · Our pick: on the game page
- Sacramento State Hornets at Bowling Green FalconsSat, Oct 10 · Our pick: on the game page
Prediction published Oct 4, 2026, 3:02 PM UTC
Tomorrow's board, before kickoff
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Frequently asked questions
- Who won Missouri State vs Western Kentucky?
- Western Kentucky Hilltoppers won 34-13. Maiden picked Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at 60% to win, published before kickoff, so the call landed. Either way it stays on our public record.
- Where does the Missouri State vs Western Kentucky win probability come from?
- We fit power ratings to eleven seasons of college football results, blend them with published efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home advantage, with Western Kentucky Hilltoppers hosting Missouri State Bears. The win-probability model is checked against more than six thousand out-of-sample games. No sportsbook line goes into it, and none appears on this page.
- Is this betting advice?
- No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Maiden publishes predictions, not bets.