Southern Miss Golden Eagles at Troy Trojans — result and pick review
Result
✓ Pick rightTroy Trojans 55, Southern Miss Golden Eagles 34
Our pick landed: Troy Trojans won 55-34. We had them at 67%.
Troy Trojans, 67% to win. We project them by 7.2.
The numbers
| Our pick | Troy Trojans |
| Chance they win | 67% |
| Our projected spread (Troy Trojans) | -7.2 |
| Our projected score (Troy Trojans first) | 28-20 |
| Projected total | 48 |
The win probability is the graded call. The projected spread, score and total come from the same model, and they beat a naive baseline in every season we tested. A spread reads here as it does anywhere else: -11 means we project that side to win by eleven. These are our numbers, not a market’s — the market consensus is shown separately, and labelled, wherever we have it.
Market average
| Spread (Troy Trojans) | -9.5 |
| Total | 51.5 |
The market’s numbers, not ours: an average across the books our data provider covers, for context beside the projections above. We don’t guarantee its accuracy or timeliness, and nothing here is a price you can transact at.
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- Wyoming Cowboys at San José State SpartansFri, Oct 9 · Our pick: on the game page
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Prediction published Oct 4, 2026, 3:02 PM UTC
Tomorrow's board, before kickoff
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Frequently asked questions
- Who won Southern Miss vs Troy?
- Troy Trojans won 55-34. Maiden picked Troy Trojans at 67% to win, published before kickoff, so the call landed. Either way it stays on our public record.
- Where does the Southern Miss vs Troy win probability come from?
- We fit power ratings to eleven seasons of college football results, blend them with published efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home advantage, with Troy Trojans hosting Southern Miss Golden Eagles. The win-probability model is checked against more than six thousand out-of-sample games. No sportsbook line goes into it, and none appears on this page.
- Is this betting advice?
- No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Maiden publishes predictions, not bets.