New Mexico State Aggies at Florida International Panthers — result and pick review
Result
✓ Pick rightFlorida International Panthers 22, New Mexico State Aggies 3
Our pick landed: Florida International Panthers won 22-3. We had them at 63%.
Florida International Panthers, 63% to win. We project them by 5.5.
The numbers
| Our pick | Florida International Panthers |
| Chance they win | 63% |
| Our projected spread (Florida International Panthers) | -5.5 |
| Our projected score (Florida International Panthers first) | 27-22 |
| Projected total | 49 |
The win probability is the graded call. The projected spread, score and total come from the same model, and they beat a naive baseline in every season we tested. A spread reads here as it does anywhere else: -11 means we project that side to win by eleven. These are our numbers, not a market’s — the market consensus is shown separately, and labelled, wherever we have it.
Market average
| Spread (Florida International Panthers) | -6.5 |
| Total | 45.5 |
The market’s numbers, not ours: an average across the books our data provider covers, for context beside the projections above. We don’t guarantee its accuracy or timeliness, and nothing here is a price you can transact at.
Other picks on the Week 6, 2026 board
- Southern Miss Golden Eagles at Troy TrojansTue, Oct 6 · Troy Trojans, 67% to win
- Missouri State Bears at Western Kentucky HilltoppersThu, Oct 8 · Western Kentucky Hilltoppers, 60% to win
- Sam Houston Bearkats at Liberty FlamesThu, Oct 8 · Liberty Flames, 76% to win
- Florida State Seminoles at Louisville CardinalsFri, Oct 9 · Louisville Cardinals, 59% to win
- Wyoming Cowboys at San José State SpartansFri, Oct 9 · Our pick: on the game page
- Iowa Hawkeyes at Washington HuskiesFri, Oct 9 · Our pick: on the game page
- Iowa State Cyclones at BYU CougarsFri, Oct 9 · Our pick: on the game page
- Sacramento State Hornets at Bowling Green FalconsSat, Oct 10 · Our pick: on the game page
Prediction published Oct 4, 2026, 3:02 PM UTC
Tomorrow's board, before kickoff
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Frequently asked questions
- Who won New Mexico State vs Florida International?
- Florida International Panthers won 22-3. Maiden picked Florida International Panthers at 63% to win, published before kickoff, so the call landed. Either way it stays on our public record.
- Where does the New Mexico State vs Florida International win probability come from?
- We fit power ratings to eleven seasons of college football results, blend them with published efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home advantage, with Florida International Panthers hosting New Mexico State Aggies. The win-probability model is checked against more than six thousand out-of-sample games. No sportsbook line goes into it, and none appears on this page.
- Is this betting advice?
- No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Maiden publishes predictions, not bets.