✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Reilly Opelka at 84%, but Federico Cina won 3-6 6-4 6-2 6-7 6-4.
Pick: Opelka
Win probability: 84% Opelka
Federico Cina and Reilly Opelka meet in the first round at French Open on Sunday. Reilly Opelka has dropped 2 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten. Federico Cina limps in on a 5-match losing skid, just 2 wins in 10.
Federico Cina leads the head-to-head 1-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Cina — worth more than the overall number this week.
Opelka's 78.8% behind the first serve (against 67.1% for Cina) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. If Opelka plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Alexander Blockx was our 76% pick, and won 6-3 6-4 6-2.
Pick: Blockx
Win probability: 76% Blockx
Sunday's French Open first round pits Alexander Blockx against Coleman Wong on clay. Alexander Blockx is 8-2 across recent matches. Coleman Wong limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10.
The ledger favors Alexander Blockx, 1-0 across their 1 meetings with Coleman Wong. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Blockx — worth more than the overall number this week.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. If Blockx plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Valentin Royer at 76% before the match, and Valentin Royer won 6-4 6-2 6-2.
Pick: Royer
Win probability: 76% Royer
Sunday's French Open first round pits Hugo Dellien against Valentin Royer on clay. Valentin Royer has dropped 6 straight and sits at 1-9 over the last ten. Hugo Dellien is 2-8 across recent matches.
The ledger favors Valentin Royer, 1-0 across their 1 meetings with Hugo Dellien. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Royer — worth more than the overall number this week.
Royer's 70.5% behind the first serve (against 62.3% for Dellien) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Anything other than a Royer win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 76% on Alexander Zverev, who won 6-3 6-4 6-2.
Pick: Zverev
Win probability: 76% Zverev
Alexander Zverev and Benjamin Bonzi meet in the first round at French Open on Sunday. Alexander Zverev comes in at 8 wins from the last ten. Benjamin Bonzi has won 5 of the last 10.
Alexander Zverev leads the head-to-head 1-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Zverev — worth more than the overall number this week.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. Anything other than a Zverev win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Yuliia Starodubtseva at 75% before the match, and Yuliia Starodubtseva won 6-3 6-1.
Pick: Starodubtseva
Win probability: 75% Starodubtseva
Anna Blinkova and Yuliia Starodubtseva meet in the first round at French Open on Sunday. Yuliia Starodubtseva is 7-3 across recent matches. Anna Blinkova has dropped 2 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten.
The rivalry is dead level: 1-1 across 2 matches. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Starodubtseva — worth more than the overall number this week.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. Anything other than a Starodubtseva win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 74% on Belinda Bencic, who won 6-2 6-3.
Pick: Bencic
Win probability: 74% Bencic
A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Belinda Bencic goes up against Sinja Kraus in the French Open first round. Belinda Bencic is 6-4 across recent matches. Sinja Kraus has dropped 5 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten.
Belinda Bencic has had the better of this rivalry, winning 1 of 1 against Sinja Kraus. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Bencic — worth more than the overall number this week.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. If Bencic plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 72% on Arthur Gea; Karen Khachanov won 6-3 7-6 6-0.
Pick: Gea
Win probability: 72% Gea
Sunday's French Open first round pits Arthur Gea against Karen Khachanov on clay. Arthur Gea has won 3 of the last 10. Karen Khachanov comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
The ledger favors Karen Khachanov, 1-0 across their 1 meetings with Arthur Gea. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Khachanov — worth more than the overall number this week.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Gea should have enough here, though Khachanov has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Marta Kostyuk at 72% before the match, and Marta Kostyuk won 6-2 6-3.
Pick: Kostyuk
Win probability: 72% Kostyuk
A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Marta Kostyuk goes up against Oksana Selekhmeteva in the French Open first round. Marta Kostyuk brings a 10-match winning streak into this one, 10-0 across the last ten. Oksana Selekhmeteva is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (4 of the last 10).
Marta Kostyuk has had the better of this rivalry, winning 1 of 1 against Oksana Selekhmeteva. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Kostyuk — worth more than the overall number this week.
The serve is where this match separates: Kostyuk has been winning 63.3% of first-serve points to Selekhmeteva's 58.1%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Kostyuk.
✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Kyrian Jacquet at 71%, but Marco Trungelliti won 6-4 6-2 6-2.
Pick: Jacquet
Win probability: 71% Jacquet
Kyrian Jacquet and Marco Trungelliti meet in the first round at French Open on Sunday. Kyrian Jacquet is 2-8 across recent matches. Marco Trungelliti is searching for form, having lost 4 in a row (4 of the last 10).
The ledger favors Marco Trungelliti, 2-0 across their 2 meetings with Kyrian Jacquet. On clay specifically it reads 2-0 Trungelliti — worth more than the overall number this week.
Hold strength tells the story — 72.7% versus 67.6% on first-serve points in Jacquet's favor. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Jacquet.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Thiago Agustin Tirante was our 71% pick, and won 6-3 7-6(6) 6-7(5) 6-0.
Pick: Tirante
Win probability: 71% Tirante
A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Pablo Llamas Ruiz goes up against Thiago Agustin Tirante in the French Open first round. Thiago Agustin Tirante is 7-3 across recent matches. Pablo Llamas Ruiz is 5-5 across recent matches.
Thiago Agustin Tirante leads the head-to-head 1-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Tirante — worth more than the overall number this week.
Hold strength tells the story — 71.8% versus 65% on first-serve points in Tirante's favor. Tirante should have enough here, though Ruiz has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 71% on Quentin Halys, who won 6-3 7-6 6-3.
Pick: Halys
Win probability: 71% Halys
A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Mattia Bellucci goes up against Quentin Halys in the French Open first round. Quentin Halys is 5-5 across recent matches. Mattia Bellucci has won 5 of the last 10.
They have split their 2 previous meetings evenly at 1-1. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Halys — worth more than the overall number this week.
The serve is where this match separates: Halys has been winning 77% of first-serve points to Bellucci's 71.7%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Halys.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 70% on Mirra Andreeva, who won 6-3 6-3.
Pick: Andreeva
Win probability: 70% Andreeva
Fiona Ferro and Mirra Andreeva meet in the first round at French Open on Sunday. Mirra Andreeva brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 8-2 across the last ten. Fiona Ferro comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
Mirra Andreeva has had the better of this rivalry, winning 1 of 1 against Fiona Ferro. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Andreeva — worth more than the overall number this week.
Hold strength tells the story — 63.7% versus 60.1% on first-serve points in Andreeva's favor. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Andreeva.
✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 68% on Sloane Stephens; Sara Bejlek won 6-3 6-2.
Pick: Stephens
Win probability: 68% Stephens
A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Sara Bejlek goes up against Sloane Stephens in the French Open first round. Sloane Stephens is 2-8 across recent matches. Sara Bejlek has dropped 2 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten.
Sara Bejlek leads the head-to-head 1-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Bejlek — worth more than the overall number this week.
The serve is where this match separates: Stephens has been winning 60.8% of first-serve points to Bejlek's 57.3%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Stephens.
✗ Pick wrongA miss: Taylor Fritz at 68% lost to Nishesh Basavareddy (7-6 7-6 6-7 6-1).
Pick: Fritz
Win probability: 68% Fritz
A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Nishesh Basavareddy goes up against Taylor Fritz in the French Open first round. Taylor Fritz comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Nishesh Basavareddy comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
Nishesh Basavareddy has had the better of this rivalry, winning 1 of 1 against Taylor Fritz. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Basavareddy — worth more than the overall number this week.
Hold strength tells the story — 74.6% versus 70.1% on first-serve points in Fritz's favor. Fritz should have enough here, though Basavareddy has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 68% on Hailey Baptiste, who won 6-7 7-6 6-2.
Pick: Baptiste
Win probability: 68% Baptiste
Sunday's French Open first round pits Barbora Krejcikova against Hailey Baptiste on clay. Hailey Baptiste is 6-4 across recent matches. Barbora Krejcikova is 5-5 across recent matches.
The ledger favors Hailey Baptiste, 2-0 across their 2 meetings with Barbora Krejcikova. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Baptiste — worth more than the overall number this week.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. The edge belongs to Baptiste — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 66% on Jakub Mensik, who won 6-3 6-2 6-4.
Pick: Mensik
Win probability: 66% Mensik
Sunday's French Open first round pits Jakub Mensik against Titouan Droguet on clay. Jakub Mensik is 5-5 across recent matches. Titouan Droguet has won 7 of the last 10.
Jakub Mensik leads the head-to-head 2-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Mensik — worth more than the overall number this week.
Hold strength tells the story — 76.8% versus 72.5% on first-serve points in Mensik's favor. Mensik should have enough here, though Droguet has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Zizou Bergs at 65%, but Tomas Machac won 6-4 6-4 6-3.
Pick: Bergs
Win probability: 65% Bergs
Sunday's French Open first round pits Tomas Machac against Zizou Bergs on clay. Zizou Bergs has dropped 2 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten. Tomas Machac comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
Tomas Machac has had the better of this rivalry, winning 1 of 1 against Zizou Bergs. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Machac — worth more than the overall number this week.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Bergs.
✗ Pick wrongA miss: Fabian Marozsan at 64% lost to Miomir Kecmanovic (7-6 6-3 6-4).
Pick: Marozsan
Win probability: 64% Marozsan
A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Fabian Marozsan goes up against Miomir Kecmanovic in the French Open first round. Fabian Marozsan has won 5 of the last 10. Miomir Kecmanovic is 4-6 across recent matches.
The rivalry is dead level: 1-1 across 2 matches. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Kecmanovic — worth more than the overall number this week.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. The edge belongs to Marozsan — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Marie Bouzkova at 64% before the match, and Marie Bouzkova won 6-3 6-1.
Pick: Bouzkova
Win probability: 64% Bouzkova
A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Lucia Bronzetti goes up against Marie Bouzkova in the French Open first round. Marie Bouzkova comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Lucia Bronzetti limps in on a 9-match losing skid, just 1 wins in 10.
Marie Bouzkova has had the better of this rivalry, winning 2 of 2 against Lucia Bronzetti. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Bouzkova — worth more than the overall number this week.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Bouzkova — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
✗ Pick wrongA miss: Emma Raducanu at 63% lost to Solana Sierra (6-0 7-6).
Pick: Raducanu
Win probability: 63% Raducanu
Emma Raducanu and Solana Sierra meet in the first round at French Open on Sunday. Emma Raducanu is 5-5 across recent matches. Solana Sierra comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
Solana Sierra has had the better of this rivalry, winning 1 of 1 against Emma Raducanu. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Sierra — worth more than the overall number this week.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Raducanu.
✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Clara Tauson at 58%, but Daria Snigur won 3-6 7-5 6-2.
Pick: Tauson
Win probability: 58% Tauson
A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Clara Tauson goes up against Daria Snigur in the French Open first round. Clara Tauson has dropped 3 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten. Daria Snigur is 5-5 across recent matches.
Nothing separates them historically — the head-to-head sits at 1-1. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Snigur — worth more than the overall number this week.
Hold strength tells the story — 67.1% versus 58.6% on first-serve points in Tauson's favor. Little separates them; Tauson gets the nod on the finest of margins.
✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 58% on Yannick Hanfmann; Hamad Medjedovic won 6-3 6-4 6-7 6-4.
Pick: Hanfmann
Win probability: 58% Hanfmann
Sunday's French Open first round pits Hamad Medjedovic against Yannick Hanfmann on clay. Yannick Hanfmann is 5-5 across recent matches. Hamad Medjedovic has won 3 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall.
The ledger favors Hamad Medjedovic, 2-0 across their 2 meetings with Yannick Hanfmann. On clay specifically it reads 2-0 Medjedovic — worth more than the overall number this week.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Hanfmann fractionally more likely to land the big points.
✗ Pick wrongA miss: Tomas Martin Etcheverry at 58% lost to Nuno Borges (6-3 6-4 6-2).
Pick: Etcheverry
Win probability: 58% Etcheverry
Nuno Borges and Tomas Martin Etcheverry meet in the first round at French Open on Sunday. Tomas Martin Etcheverry has won 6 of the last 10. Nuno Borges comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
The ledger favors Nuno Borges, 3-0 across their 3 meetings with Tomas Martin Etcheverry. On clay specifically it reads 2-0 Borges — worth more than the overall number this week.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Etcheverry fractionally more likely to land the big points.
✗ Pick wrongA miss: Ajla Tomljanovic at 58% lost to Caty Mcnally (3-6 7-6 6-3).
Pick: Tomljanovic
Win probability: 58% Tomljanovic
Ajla Tomljanovic and Caty Mcnally meet in the first round at French Open on Sunday. Ajla Tomljanovic limps in on a 4-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10. Caty Mcnally is 6-4 across recent matches.
The ledger favors Caty Mcnally, 3-0 across their 3 meetings with Ajla Tomljanovic. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Mcnally — worth more than the overall number this week.
The serve is where this match separates: Tomljanovic has been winning 63.3% of first-serve points to Mcnally's 60.1%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Tomljanovic fractionally more likely to land the big points.
✗ Pick wrongA miss: Ksenia Efremova at 57% lost to Sorana Cirstea (6-3 6-1).
Pick: Efremova
Win probability: 57% Efremova
A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Ksenia Efremova goes up against Sorana Cirstea in the French Open first round. Ksenia Efremova comes in at 1 wins from the last ten. Sorana Cirstea brings a 4-match winning streak into this one, 8-2 across the last ten.
The ledger favors Sorana Cirstea, 1-0 across their 1 meetings with Ksenia Efremova. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Cirstea — worth more than the overall number this week.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Efremova is exactly that — a lean.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Novak Djokovic was our 57% pick, and won 5-7 7-5 6-1 6-4.
Pick: Djokovic
Win probability: 57% Djokovic
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard and Novak Djokovic meet in the first round at French Open on Sunday. Novak Djokovic comes in at 8 wins from the last ten. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard has won 2 of the last 10.
Novak Djokovic leads the head-to-head 1-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Djokovic — worth more than the overall number this week.
Novak Djokovic simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Djokovic gets the nod on the finest of margins.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina was our 56% pick, and won 6-7 6-3 2-6 7-5 6-3.
Pick: Fokina
Win probability: 56% Fokina
A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Alejandro Davidovich Fokina goes up against Damir Dzumhur in the French Open first round. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has won 5 of the last 10. Damir Dzumhur is 5-5 across recent matches.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has had the better of this rivalry, winning 3 of 3 against Damir Dzumhur. On clay specifically it reads 2-0 Fokina — worth more than the overall number this week.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Fokina fractionally more likely to land the big points.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Tamara Korpatsch was our 55% pick, and won 6-4 6-2.
Pick: Korpatsch
Win probability: 55% Korpatsch
A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Sara Sorribes Tormo goes up against Tamara Korpatsch in the French Open first round. Tamara Korpatsch has dropped 2 straight and sits at 6-4 over the last ten. Sara Sorribes Tormo is 5-5 across recent matches.
Sara Sorribes Tormo has had the better of this rivalry, winning 2 of 3 against Tamara Korpatsch. On clay specifically it reads 2-1 Tormo — worth more than the overall number this week.
Hold strength tells the story — 59.8% versus 56.4% on first-serve points in Korpatsch's favor. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Korpatsch is exactly that — a lean.
✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Sofia Kenin at 54%, but Peyton Stearns won 6-3 6-3.
Pick: Kenin
Win probability: 54% Kenin
A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Peyton Stearns goes up against Sofia Kenin in the French Open first round. Sofia Kenin is 2-8 across recent matches. Peyton Stearns has won 5 of the last 10.
Peyton Stearns leads the head-to-head 2-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Stearns — worth more than the overall number this week.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Little separates them; Kenin gets the nod on the finest of margins.
✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Michael Zheng at 53%, but Dino Prizmic won 6-1 6-1 6-3.
Pick: Zheng
Win probability: 53% Zheng
Dino Prizmic and Michael Zheng meet in the first round at French Open on Sunday. Michael Zheng has dropped 2 straight and sits at 1-9 over the last ten. Dino Prizmic has won 3 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall.
The ledger favors Dino Prizmic, 1-0 across their 1 meetings with Michael Zheng. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Prizmic — worth more than the overall number this week.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Little separates them; Zheng gets the nod on the finest of margins.
✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Clara Burel at 53%, but Katie Volynets won 6-3 6-1.
Pick: Burel
Win probability: 53% Burel
Clara Burel and Katie Volynets meet in the first round at French Open on Sunday. Clara Burel comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Katie Volynets has dropped 3 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten.
Katie Volynets leads the head-to-head 1-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Volynets — worth more than the overall number this week.
Hold strength tells the story — 60.5% versus 57% on first-serve points in Burel's favor. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Burel is exactly that — a lean.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 53% on Lorenzo Sonego, who won 7-6 5-7 6-2 1-6 6-4.
Pick: Sonego
Win probability: 53% Sonego
A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Lorenzo Sonego goes up against Pierre Hugues Herbert in the French Open first round. Lorenzo Sonego is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (4 of the last 10). Pierre Hugues Herbert has dropped 4 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten.
Lorenzo Sonego leads the head-to-head 1-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Sonego — worth more than the overall number this week.
Lorenzo Sonego simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Sonego gets the nod on the finest of margins.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Magda Linette at 51% before the match, and Magda Linette won 5-7 6-4 7-6.
Pick: Linette
Win probability: 51% Linette
Sunday's French Open first round pits Magda Linette against Tereza Valentova on clay. Magda Linette comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. Tereza Valentova comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
The ledger favors Magda Linette, 1-0 across their 1 meetings with Tereza Valentova. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Linette — worth more than the overall number this week.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Linette is exactly that — a lean.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 51% on Joao Fonseca, who won 7-6 6-4 6-2.
Pick: Fonseca
Win probability: 51% Fonseca
Sunday's French Open first round pits Joao Fonseca against Luka Pavlovic on clay. Joao Fonseca has won 6 of the last 10. Luka Pavlovic has won 0 of the last 10.
Joao Fonseca leads the head-to-head 1-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Fonseca — worth more than the overall number this week.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Fonseca is exactly that — a lean.