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French Open predictions, May 24, 2026: Cina vs. Opelka, Blockx vs. Wong

By The Maiden Desk · May 24, 2026

Every pick below gets graded after the match — wins and misses both stay up.

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34 matches are on Sunday's card at French Open, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Federico Cina against Reilly Opelka in the first round. Our calls: Opelka over Cina, Blockx over Wong, Royer over Dellien, Zverev over Bonzi, Starodubtseva over Blinkova, Bencic over Kraus, Gea over Khachanov, Kostyuk over Selekhmeteva, Jacquet over Trungelliti, Tirante over Ruiz, Halys over Bellucci, Andreeva over Ferro, Stephens over Bejlek, Fritz over Basavareddy, Baptiste over Krejcikova, Mensik over Droguet, Bergs over Machac, Marozsan over Kecmanovic, Bouzkova over Bronzetti, Raducanu over Sierra, Tauson over Snigur, Hanfmann over Medjedovic, Etcheverry over Borges, Tomljanovic over Mcnally, Efremova over Cirstea, Djokovic over Perricard, Fokina over Dzumhur, Korpatsch over Tormo, Kenin over Stearns, Zheng over Prizmic, Burel over Volynets, Sonego over Herbert, Linette over Valentova, Fonseca over Pavlovic. As always, every pick below is graded after the fact and stays up, right or wrong.

Yesterday’s results: 3-0

May 23, 2026 card →
  • ✓ Pick rightTien at 60% won 3-6 6-3 7-5
  • ✓ Pick rightNavarro at 59% won 6-0 5-7 6-2
  • ✓ Pick rightBuse at 54% won 7-6 4-6 6-3

Every pick graded in public — the full ledger lives on the track record.

Federico Cina vs. Reilly Opelka

Federico Cina and Reilly Opelka meet in the first round at French Open on Sunday. Reilly Opelka has dropped 2 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten. Federico Cina limps in on a 5-match losing skid, just 2 wins in 10.

Federico Cina leads the head-to-head 1-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Cina — worth more than the overall number this week.

Opelka's 78.8% behind the first serve (against 67.1% for Cina) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. If Opelka plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.

Pick: Opelka

Win probability: 84% Opelka

✗ Pick wrongGraded: incorrect. We had Reilly Opelka at 84%, but Federico Cina won 3-6 6-4 6-2 6-7 6-4. This one goes in the ledger — every miss stays on the record.

Alexander Blockx vs. Coleman Wong

Sunday's French Open first round pits Alexander Blockx against Coleman Wong on clay. Alexander Blockx is 8-2 across recent matches. Coleman Wong limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10.

The ledger favors Alexander Blockx, 1-0 across their 1 meetings with Coleman Wong. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Blockx — worth more than the overall number this week.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. If Blockx plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.

Pick: Blockx

Win probability: 76% Blockx

✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Alexander Blockx was our 76% pick, and won 6-3 6-4 6-2.

Hugo Dellien vs. Valentin Royer

Sunday's French Open first round pits Hugo Dellien against Valentin Royer on clay. Valentin Royer has dropped 6 straight and sits at 1-9 over the last ten. Hugo Dellien is 2-8 across recent matches.

The ledger favors Valentin Royer, 1-0 across their 1 meetings with Hugo Dellien. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Royer — worth more than the overall number this week.

Royer's 70.5% behind the first serve (against 62.3% for Dellien) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Anything other than a Royer win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.

Pick: Royer

Win probability: 76% Royer

✓ Pick rightGraded: correct. Our final pre-match number was 76% on Valentin Royer, and Valentin Royer won 6-4 6-2 6-2.

Alexander Zverev vs. Benjamin Bonzi

Alexander Zverev and Benjamin Bonzi meet in the first round at French Open on Sunday. Alexander Zverev comes in at 8 wins from the last ten. Benjamin Bonzi has won 5 of the last 10.

Alexander Zverev leads the head-to-head 1-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Zverev — worth more than the overall number this week.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. Anything other than a Zverev win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.

Pick: Zverev

Win probability: 76% Zverev

✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 76% on Alexander Zverev, who won 6-3 6-4 6-2.

Anna Blinkova vs. Yuliia Starodubtseva

Anna Blinkova and Yuliia Starodubtseva meet in the first round at French Open on Sunday. Yuliia Starodubtseva is 7-3 across recent matches. Anna Blinkova has dropped 2 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten.

The rivalry is dead level: 1-1 across 2 matches. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Starodubtseva — worth more than the overall number this week.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. Anything other than a Starodubtseva win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.

Pick: Starodubtseva

Win probability: 75% Starodubtseva

✓ Pick rightGraded: correct. Our final pre-match number was 75% on Yuliia Starodubtseva, and Yuliia Starodubtseva won 6-3 6-1.

Belinda Bencic vs. Sinja Kraus

A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Belinda Bencic goes up against Sinja Kraus in the French Open first round. Belinda Bencic is 6-4 across recent matches. Sinja Kraus has dropped 5 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten.

Belinda Bencic has had the better of this rivalry, winning 1 of 1 against Sinja Kraus. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Bencic — worth more than the overall number this week.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. If Bencic plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.

Pick: Bencic

Win probability: 74% Bencic

✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 74% on Belinda Bencic, who won 6-2 6-3.

Arthur Gea vs. Karen Khachanov

Sunday's French Open first round pits Arthur Gea against Karen Khachanov on clay. Arthur Gea has won 3 of the last 10. Karen Khachanov comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.

The ledger favors Karen Khachanov, 1-0 across their 1 meetings with Arthur Gea. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Khachanov — worth more than the overall number this week.

The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Gea should have enough here, though Khachanov has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

Pick: Gea

Win probability: 72% Gea

✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 72% on Arthur Gea; Karen Khachanov won 6-3 7-6 6-0.

Marta Kostyuk vs. Oksana Selekhmeteva

A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Marta Kostyuk goes up against Oksana Selekhmeteva in the French Open first round. Marta Kostyuk brings a 10-match winning streak into this one, 10-0 across the last ten. Oksana Selekhmeteva is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (4 of the last 10).

Marta Kostyuk has had the better of this rivalry, winning 1 of 1 against Oksana Selekhmeteva. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Kostyuk — worth more than the overall number this week.

The serve is where this match separates: Kostyuk has been winning 63.3% of first-serve points to Selekhmeteva's 58.1%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Kostyuk.

Pick: Kostyuk

Win probability: 72% Kostyuk

✓ Pick rightGraded: correct. Our final pre-match number was 72% on Marta Kostyuk, and Marta Kostyuk won 6-2 6-3.

Kyrian Jacquet vs. Marco Trungelliti

Kyrian Jacquet and Marco Trungelliti meet in the first round at French Open on Sunday. Kyrian Jacquet is 2-8 across recent matches. Marco Trungelliti is searching for form, having lost 4 in a row (4 of the last 10).

The ledger favors Marco Trungelliti, 1-0 across their 1 meetings with Kyrian Jacquet. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Trungelliti — worth more than the overall number this week.

Hold strength tells the story — 72.7% versus 67.6% on first-serve points in Jacquet's favor. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Jacquet.

Pick: Jacquet

Win probability: 71% Jacquet

✗ Pick wrongGraded: incorrect. We had Kyrian Jacquet at 71%, but Marco Trungelliti won 6-4 6-2 6-2. This one goes in the ledger — every miss stays on the record.

Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs. Thiago Agustin Tirante

A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Pablo Llamas Ruiz goes up against Thiago Agustin Tirante in the French Open first round. Thiago Agustin Tirante is 7-3 across recent matches. Pablo Llamas Ruiz is 5-5 across recent matches.

Thiago Agustin Tirante leads the head-to-head 1-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Tirante — worth more than the overall number this week.

Hold strength tells the story — 71.8% versus 65% on first-serve points in Tirante's favor. Tirante should have enough here, though Ruiz has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

Pick: Tirante

Win probability: 71% Tirante

✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Thiago Agustin Tirante was our 71% pick, and won 6-3 7-6 6-7 1-0.

Mattia Bellucci vs. Quentin Halys

A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Mattia Bellucci goes up against Quentin Halys in the French Open first round. Quentin Halys is 5-5 across recent matches. Mattia Bellucci has won 5 of the last 10.

They have split their 2 previous meetings evenly at 1-1. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Halys — worth more than the overall number this week.

The serve is where this match separates: Halys has been winning 77% of first-serve points to Bellucci's 71.7%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Halys.

Pick: Halys

Win probability: 71% Halys

✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 71% on Quentin Halys, who won 6-3 7-6 6-3.

Fiona Ferro vs. Mirra Andreeva

Fiona Ferro and Mirra Andreeva meet in the first round at French Open on Sunday. Mirra Andreeva brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 8-2 across the last ten. Fiona Ferro comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.

Mirra Andreeva has had the better of this rivalry, winning 1 of 1 against Fiona Ferro. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Andreeva — worth more than the overall number this week.

Hold strength tells the story — 63.7% versus 60.1% on first-serve points in Andreeva's favor. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Andreeva.

Pick: Andreeva

Win probability: 70% Andreeva

✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 70% on Mirra Andreeva, who won 6-3 6-3.

Sara Bejlek vs. Sloane Stephens

A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Sara Bejlek goes up against Sloane Stephens in the French Open first round. Sloane Stephens is 2-8 across recent matches. Sara Bejlek has dropped 2 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten.

Sara Bejlek leads the head-to-head 1-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Bejlek — worth more than the overall number this week.

The serve is where this match separates: Stephens has been winning 60.8% of first-serve points to Bejlek's 57.3%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Stephens.

Pick: Stephens

Win probability: 68% Stephens

✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 68% on Sloane Stephens; Sara Bejlek won 6-3 6-2.

Nishesh Basavareddy vs. Taylor Fritz

A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Nishesh Basavareddy goes up against Taylor Fritz in the French Open first round. Taylor Fritz comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Nishesh Basavareddy comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.

Nishesh Basavareddy has had the better of this rivalry, winning 1 of 1 against Taylor Fritz. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Basavareddy — worth more than the overall number this week.

Hold strength tells the story — 74.6% versus 70.1% on first-serve points in Fritz's favor. Fritz should have enough here, though Basavareddy has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

Pick: Fritz

Win probability: 68% Fritz

✗ Pick wrongA miss: Taylor Fritz at 68% lost to Nishesh Basavareddy (7-6 7-6 6-7 6-1). It counts against our record like every other miss.

Barbora Krejcikova vs. Hailey Baptiste

Sunday's French Open first round pits Barbora Krejcikova against Hailey Baptiste on clay. Hailey Baptiste is 6-4 across recent matches. Barbora Krejcikova is 5-5 across recent matches.

The ledger favors Hailey Baptiste, 2-0 across their 2 meetings with Barbora Krejcikova. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Baptiste — worth more than the overall number this week.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Baptiste — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

Pick: Baptiste

Win probability: 68% Baptiste

✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 68% on Hailey Baptiste, who won 6-7 7-6 6-2.

Jakub Mensik vs. Titouan Droguet

Sunday's French Open first round pits Jakub Mensik against Titouan Droguet on clay. Jakub Mensik is 5-5 across recent matches. Titouan Droguet has won 7 of the last 10.

Jakub Mensik leads the head-to-head 2-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Mensik — worth more than the overall number this week.

Hold strength tells the story — 76.8% versus 72.5% on first-serve points in Mensik's favor. Mensik should have enough here, though Droguet has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

Pick: Mensik

Win probability: 66% Mensik

✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 66% on Jakub Mensik, who won 6-3 6-2 6-4.

Tomas Machac vs. Zizou Bergs

Sunday's French Open first round pits Tomas Machac against Zizou Bergs on clay. Zizou Bergs has dropped 2 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten. Tomas Machac comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.

Tomas Machac has had the better of this rivalry, winning 1 of 1 against Zizou Bergs. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Machac — worth more than the overall number this week.

The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Bergs.

Pick: Bergs

Win probability: 65% Bergs

✗ Pick wrongGraded: incorrect. We had Zizou Bergs at 65%, but Tomas Machac won 6-4 6-4 6-3. This one goes in the ledger — every miss stays on the record.

Fabian Marozsan vs. Miomir Kecmanovic

A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Fabian Marozsan goes up against Miomir Kecmanovic in the French Open first round. Fabian Marozsan has won 5 of the last 10. Miomir Kecmanovic is 4-6 across recent matches.

The rivalry is dead level: 1-1 across 2 matches. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Kecmanovic — worth more than the overall number this week.

Fabian Marozsan is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Marozsan around 64%. The edge belongs to Marozsan — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

Pick: Marozsan

Win probability: 64% Marozsan

✗ Pick wrongA miss: Fabian Marozsan at 64% lost to Miomir Kecmanovic (7-6 6-3 6-4). It counts against our record like every other miss.

Lucia Bronzetti vs. Marie Bouzkova

A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Lucia Bronzetti goes up against Marie Bouzkova in the French Open first round. Marie Bouzkova comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Lucia Bronzetti limps in on a 9-match losing skid, just 1 wins in 10.

Marie Bouzkova has had the better of this rivalry, winning 2 of 2 against Lucia Bronzetti. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Bouzkova — worth more than the overall number this week.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Bouzkova — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

Pick: Bouzkova

Win probability: 64% Bouzkova

✓ Pick rightGraded: correct. Our final pre-match number was 64% on Marie Bouzkova, and Marie Bouzkova won 6-3 6-1.

Emma Raducanu vs. Solana Sierra

Emma Raducanu and Solana Sierra meet in the first round at French Open on Sunday. Emma Raducanu is 5-5 across recent matches. Solana Sierra comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.

Solana Sierra has had the better of this rivalry, winning 1 of 1 against Emma Raducanu. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Sierra — worth more than the overall number this week.

Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Raducanu.

Pick: Raducanu

Win probability: 63% Raducanu

✗ Pick wrongA miss: Emma Raducanu at 63% lost to Solana Sierra (6-0 7-6). It counts against our record like every other miss.

Clara Tauson vs. Daria Snigur

A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Clara Tauson goes up against Daria Snigur in the French Open first round. Clara Tauson has dropped 3 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten. Daria Snigur is 5-5 across recent matches.

Nothing separates them historically — the head-to-head sits at 1-1. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Snigur — worth more than the overall number this week.

Hold strength tells the story — 67.1% versus 58.6% on first-serve points in Tauson's favor. Little separates them; Tauson gets the nod on the finest of margins.

Pick: Tauson

Win probability: 58% Tauson

✗ Pick wrongGraded: incorrect. We had Clara Tauson at 58%, but Daria Snigur won 3-6 7-5 6-2. This one goes in the ledger — every miss stays on the record.

Hamad Medjedovic vs. Yannick Hanfmann

Sunday's French Open first round pits Hamad Medjedovic against Yannick Hanfmann on clay. Yannick Hanfmann is 5-5 across recent matches. Hamad Medjedovic has won 3 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall.

The ledger favors Hamad Medjedovic, 2-0 across their 2 meetings with Yannick Hanfmann. On clay specifically it reads 2-0 Medjedovic — worth more than the overall number this week.

The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Hanfmann fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Pick: Hanfmann

Win probability: 58% Hanfmann

✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 58% on Yannick Hanfmann; Hamad Medjedovic won 6-3 6-4 6-7 6-4.

Nuno Borges vs. Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Nuno Borges and Tomas Martin Etcheverry meet in the first round at French Open on Sunday. Tomas Martin Etcheverry has won 6 of the last 10. Nuno Borges comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.

The ledger favors Nuno Borges, 3-0 across their 3 meetings with Tomas Martin Etcheverry. On clay specifically it reads 2-0 Borges — worth more than the overall number this week.

Tomas Martin Etcheverry is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Etcheverry around 58%. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Etcheverry fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Pick: Etcheverry

Win probability: 58% Etcheverry

✗ Pick wrongA miss: Tomas Martin Etcheverry at 58% lost to Nuno Borges (6-3 6-4 6-2). It counts against our record like every other miss.

Ajla Tomljanovic vs. Caty Mcnally

Ajla Tomljanovic and Caty Mcnally meet in the first round at French Open on Sunday. Ajla Tomljanovic limps in on a 4-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10. Caty Mcnally is 6-4 across recent matches.

The ledger favors Caty Mcnally, 3-0 across their 3 meetings with Ajla Tomljanovic. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Mcnally — worth more than the overall number this week.

The serve is where this match separates: Tomljanovic has been winning 63.3% of first-serve points to Mcnally's 60.1%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Tomljanovic fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Pick: Tomljanovic

Win probability: 58% Tomljanovic

✗ Pick wrongA miss: Ajla Tomljanovic at 58% lost to Caty Mcnally (3-6 7-6 6-3). It counts against our record like every other miss.

Ksenia Efremova vs. Sorana Cirstea

A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Ksenia Efremova goes up against Sorana Cirstea in the French Open first round. Ksenia Efremova comes in at 1 wins from the last ten. Sorana Cirstea brings a 4-match winning streak into this one, 8-2 across the last ten.

The ledger favors Sorana Cirstea, 1-0 across their 1 meetings with Ksenia Efremova. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Cirstea — worth more than the overall number this week.

On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Efremova is exactly that — a lean.

Pick: Efremova

Win probability: 57% Efremova

✗ Pick wrongA miss: Ksenia Efremova at 57% lost to Sorana Cirstea (6-3 6-1). It counts against our record like every other miss.

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs. Novak Djokovic

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard and Novak Djokovic meet in the first round at French Open on Sunday. Novak Djokovic comes in at 8 wins from the last ten. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard has won 2 of the last 10.

Novak Djokovic leads the head-to-head 1-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Djokovic — worth more than the overall number this week.

Novak Djokovic simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Djokovic gets the nod on the finest of margins.

Pick: Djokovic

Win probability: 57% Djokovic

✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Novak Djokovic was our 57% pick, and won 5-7 7-5 6-1 6-4.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs. Damir Dzumhur

A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Alejandro Davidovich Fokina goes up against Damir Dzumhur in the French Open first round. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has won 5 of the last 10. Damir Dzumhur is 5-5 across recent matches.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has had the better of this rivalry, winning 3 of 3 against Damir Dzumhur. On clay specifically it reads 2-0 Fokina — worth more than the overall number this week.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Fokina fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Pick: Fokina

Win probability: 56% Fokina

✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina was our 56% pick, and won 6-7 6-3 2-6 7-5 6-3.

Sara Sorribes Tormo vs. Tamara Korpatsch

A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Sara Sorribes Tormo goes up against Tamara Korpatsch in the French Open first round. Tamara Korpatsch has dropped 2 straight and sits at 6-4 over the last ten. Sara Sorribes Tormo is 5-5 across recent matches.

Sara Sorribes Tormo has had the better of this rivalry, winning 2 of 3 against Tamara Korpatsch. On clay specifically it reads 2-1 Tormo — worth more than the overall number this week.

Hold strength tells the story — 59.8% versus 56.4% on first-serve points in Korpatsch's favor. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Korpatsch is exactly that — a lean.

Pick: Korpatsch

Win probability: 55% Korpatsch

✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Tamara Korpatsch was our 55% pick, and won 6-4 6-2.

Peyton Stearns vs. Sofia Kenin

A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Peyton Stearns goes up against Sofia Kenin in the French Open first round. Sofia Kenin is 2-8 across recent matches. Peyton Stearns has won 5 of the last 10.

Peyton Stearns leads the head-to-head 2-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Stearns — worth more than the overall number this week.

Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Little separates them; Kenin gets the nod on the finest of margins.

Pick: Kenin

Win probability: 54% Kenin

✗ Pick wrongGraded: incorrect. We had Sofia Kenin at 54%, but Peyton Stearns won 6-3 6-3. This one goes in the ledger — every miss stays on the record.

Dino Prizmic vs. Michael Zheng

Dino Prizmic and Michael Zheng meet in the first round at French Open on Sunday. Michael Zheng has dropped 2 straight and sits at 1-9 over the last ten. Dino Prizmic has won 3 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall.

The ledger favors Dino Prizmic, 1-0 across their 1 meetings with Michael Zheng. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Prizmic — worth more than the overall number this week.

On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Little separates them; Zheng gets the nod on the finest of margins.

Pick: Zheng

Win probability: 53% Zheng

✗ Pick wrongGraded: incorrect. We had Michael Zheng at 53%, but Dino Prizmic won 6-1 6-1 6-3. This one goes in the ledger — every miss stays on the record.

Clara Burel vs. Katie Volynets

Clara Burel and Katie Volynets meet in the first round at French Open on Sunday. Clara Burel comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Katie Volynets has dropped 3 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten.

Katie Volynets leads the head-to-head 1-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Volynets — worth more than the overall number this week.

Hold strength tells the story — 60.5% versus 57% on first-serve points in Burel's favor. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Burel is exactly that — a lean.

Pick: Burel

Win probability: 53% Burel

✗ Pick wrongGraded: incorrect. We had Clara Burel at 53%, but Katie Volynets won 6-3 6-1. This one goes in the ledger — every miss stays on the record.

Lorenzo Sonego vs. Pierre Hugues Herbert

A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Lorenzo Sonego goes up against Pierre Hugues Herbert in the French Open first round. Lorenzo Sonego is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (4 of the last 10). Pierre Hugues Herbert has dropped 4 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten.

Lorenzo Sonego leads the head-to-head 1-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Sonego — worth more than the overall number this week.

Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Little separates them; Sonego gets the nod on the finest of margins.

Pick: Sonego

Win probability: 53% Sonego

✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 53% on Lorenzo Sonego, who won 7-6 5-7 6-2 1-6 6-4.

Magda Linette vs. Tereza Valentova

Sunday's French Open first round pits Magda Linette against Tereza Valentova on clay. Magda Linette comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. Tereza Valentova comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.

The ledger favors Magda Linette, 1-0 across their 1 meetings with Tereza Valentova. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Linette — worth more than the overall number this week.

Magda Linette simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Linette is exactly that — a lean.

Pick: Linette

Win probability: 51% Linette

✓ Pick rightGraded: correct. Our final pre-match number was 51% on Magda Linette, and Magda Linette won 5-7 6-4 7-6.

Joao Fonseca vs. Luka Pavlovic

Sunday's French Open first round pits Joao Fonseca against Luka Pavlovic on clay. Joao Fonseca has won 6 of the last 10. Luka Pavlovic has won 0 of the last 10.

Joao Fonseca leads the head-to-head 1-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Fonseca — worth more than the overall number this week.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Fonseca is exactly that — a lean.

Pick: Fonseca

Win probability: 51% Fonseca

✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 51% on Joao Fonseca, who won 7-6 6-4 6-2.

Updated Jul 3, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC. Picks are frozen before first serve and graded on the track record page — this page is never edited after the fact.