4 matches are on Saturday's card at Toronto, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Iga Swiatek against Marta Kostyuk in the round of 16. Our calls: Swiatek over Kostyuk, Pegula over Shnaider, Sabalenka over Alexandrova, Eala over Mcnally.
Pick: Eala
Win probability: 72% Eala · Sets: 2 (62%) · most likely score 2-0 (46%)
Alexandra Eala and Caty Mcnally meet in the round of 32 at Toronto on Saturday. Alexandra Eala is rolling — 6 straight wins, 9 of 10 in recent play. Caty Mcnally is 6-4 across recent matches.
Alexandra Eala is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Eala around 72%. Eala should have enough here, though Mcnally has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Sabalenka
Win probability: 84% Sabalenka · Market: -446 · Sets: 2 (70%) · most likely score 2-0 (62%)
Aryna Sabalenka and Ekaterina Alexandrova meet in the round of 16 at Toronto on Saturday. Aryna Sabalenka is 7-3 across recent matches. Ekaterina Alexandrova comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
Aryna Sabalenka is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Sabalenka around 84%. Alexandrova needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
Pick: Pegula
Win probability: 69% Pegula · Sets: 2 (65%) · most likely score 2-0 (48%)
Saturday's Toronto round of 16 pits Diana Shnaider against Jessica Pegula on hard. Jessica Pegula comes in at 8 wins from the last ten. Diana Shnaider is 5-5 across recent matches.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Pegula.
Pick: Swiatek
Win probability: 53% Swiatek · Sets: 2 (63%) · most likely score 2-0 (34%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Saturday, when Iga Swiatek goes up against Marta Kostyuk in the Toronto round of 16. Iga Swiatek comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Marta Kostyuk has won 8 of the last 10.
The ledger favors Iga Swiatek, 4-1 across their 5 meetings with Marta Kostyuk. On hard specifically it reads 3-0 Swiatek — worth more than the overall number this week.
Iga Swiatek simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Swiatek is exactly that — a lean.
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